Estimating the optimal population upper bound for scan methods in retrospective disease surveillance
Estimating the optimal population upper bound for scan methods in retrospective disease surveillance
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DOI：
10.1002/bimj.202000273
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发表时间：
2021-07-17
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Lipner, Ettie M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meysami, Mohammad;French, Joshua P.;Lipner, Ettie M.
正确和快速地识别疾病模式和集群是公共卫生和流行病学的一个重要方面，以便尽可能有效地缓解疾病爆发。在回顾性和前瞻性疾病监测中，环形扫描方法是检测疾病暴发和聚集的最常用方法之一。圆形扫描方法需要一个总体上限，以便构建待扫描的候选区域集，该上限通常设置为总总体的50%。循环扫描方法的性能受种群上界的选择影响，选择不同于默认值的上界可以提高方法的性能。最近，基于洛伦茨曲线的基尼系数被提出来确定一个更好的人口上限，这是最初用于经济学的。我们提出手肘的方法，一种新的方法来选择人口上限，它旨在解决一些基于基尼系数的方法的局限性，同时提高性能的圆形扫描方法超过默认值。为了评估所提出的方法的性能，我们评估的敏感性和积极的预测值的圆形扫描方法公开可用的基准数据的默认值，基尼系数法，手肘方法。
Correctly and quickly identifying disease patterns and clusters is a vital aspect of public health and epidemiology so that disease outbreaks can be mitigated as effectively as possible. The circular scan method is one of the most commonly used methods for detecting disease outbreaks and clusters in retrospective and prospective disease surveillance. The circular scan method requires a population upper bound in order to construct the set of candidate zones to be scanned, which is usually set to 50% of the total population. The performance of the circular scan method is affected by the choice of the population upper bound, and choosing an upper bound different from the default value can improve the method's performance. Recently, the Gini coefficient based on the Lorenz curve, which was originally used in economics, was proposed to determine a better population upper bound. We present the elbow method, a new method for choosing the population upper bound, which seeks to address some of the limitations of the Gini-based method while improving the performance of the circular scan method over the default value. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, we evaluate the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the circular scan method for publicly-available benchmark data for the default value, the Gini coefficient method, and the elbow method.