Value of model enhancements: quantifying the benefit of improved transmission planning models
Value of model enhancements: quantifying the benefit of improved transmission planning models
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DOI：
10.1049/iet-gtd.2018.6357
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发表时间：
2019-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Qingyu Xu;B. Hobbs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qingyu Xu;B. Hobbs
提出了一个量化输电规划模型中模型增强（VOME）价值的框架，并将其应用于西部电力协调理事会（WECC）系统大规模长期规划的案例研究。VOME，这是密切相关的概念，从决策分析信息的价值，量化的概率加权改善系统性能的变化，导致从模型增强的决定。WECC案例研究表明，量化VOME是可行的，并说明了可以获得的见解类型。四种类型的模型增强的值进行了比较。研究结果表明，考虑长期不确定性，使用多种方案的技术，政策和经济的主要好处，这些好处是高达14%的新的传输在前十年建成的总效益。然而，较少的好处是从更多的时间粒度，更复杂的网络表示，并列入单位承诺的约束和成本。这个框架可以应用于量化的VOME在任何规划的背景下，如综合资源规划。
A framework to quantify the value of model enhancements (VOMEs) in transmission planning models is proposed and applied to a case study of the large-scale, long-term planning of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The VOME, which is closely related to the concept of the value of information from decision analysis, quantifies the probability-weighted improvement in the system performance resulting from changes in decisions that result from model enhancements. The WECC case study shows that it is practical to quantify VOME and illustrates the type of insights that can be obtained. The values of four types of model enhancements are compared. The results show major benefits from considering long-run uncertainty using multiple scenarios of technology, policy, and economics; these benefits are as much as 14% of total benefits of new transmission built in the first ten years. However, less benefit is obtained from more temporal granularity, more complex network representations, and inclusion of unit commitment constraints and costs. This framework can be applied to quantify the VOMEs in any planning context, such as integrated resource planning.