Reconstruction of Mar.-Jun.Shallow Water Table Depths from 1958 to 2006 in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River,Yengsu by Use of Tamarix hispida Willd.Tree-ring Width Data
Reconstruction of Mar.-Jun.Shallow Water Table Depths from 1958 to 2006 in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River,Yengsu by Use of Tamarix hispida Willd.Tree-ring Width Data
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发表时间：
2009
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通讯作者：
Pan Cun-de
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作者：
Pan Cun-de
刚毛柽柳（Tamarix hispidaWilld.is塔里木河下游的优势灌木树种之一，具有维持脆弱生态平衡的重要功能。基于树木年轮学原理和方法，建立了1958 - 2008年刚毛柽柳年轮年表，为了解刚毛柽柳径向生长的水文响应，对江苏省三、四个时期的STD、RES树轮指数与浅层地下水位资料进行了简单相关分析，结果表明：STD树轮指数与三、四个时期的浅层地下水位资料呈显著负相关（-0.917）。利用相关系数为-0.917（99%置信水平以上）的方法，重建了1958 ~ 2006年该地区浅层地下水位序列，并利用“留一法”对回归函数的稳定性进行了估计，在99%置信水平以上，简单相关系数为0.945;在95%的置信水平下，实测值与估算值的符号检验均达到显著性水平; 1958 ~ 2000年，区域浅层地下水埋深呈上升趋势，2000年后呈下降趋势，而1958 ~ 2000年，区域浅层地下水埋深呈上升趋势，区域浅层地下水埋深呈下降趋势。浅层地下水位最浅期出现在20世纪50年代，最深期主要出现在20世纪90年代;突变检验表明，浅层地下水位在1963年、1973年和2001年发生了明显的突变。
Tamarix hispida Willd.is one of the dominant shrubs species in the lower reaches of Tarim River,Yengsu,which has a major function of maintaining weak ecological balance.Based on the principles and methods of dendrochronology,the ring-with Chronology from 1958 to 2008 was developed.To understand the hydrologic response of the radial growth of Tamarix hispida Willd.,simple correlation analysis was conducted on the STD,RES tree-ring index and shallow water table depths data of Yengsu during four periods.The analysis result showed that there was the evident negative correlation(-0.917) between the STD tree-ring index and the Mar.-Jun.shallow water table depths.The correlation coefficient-0.917 above 99 percent confidence level was used to reconstruct an shallow water table depths from 1958 to 2006 in the region.Method of "Leave-one-out" was used to estimate stability of regression function based on statistics between the observed and estimated series.The simple correlation coefficient is 0.945 above 99 percent confidence level;the positive RE values signified predictive ability of the model and the sign tests for both actual and estimated values were significant at the 95 percent confidence level.For the series of the construction,there was the rise trend in regional shallow water table depths from 1958 to 2000,but the trend was dropped after 2000.Furthermore,the shallowest periods of shallow water table depths appeared in the 1950s,and that the deepest periods occurred mainly in the 1990s.The abrupt change examination indicated that the obvious sudden change were found in 1963,1973 and 2001.