Probabilistic Short-term Wind Power Forecasting for the Optimal Management of Wind Generation
Probabilistic Short-term Wind Power Forecasting for the Optimal Management of Wind Generation
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DOI：
10.1109/pct.2007.4538398
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发表时间：
2007-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Juban;N. Siebert;G. Kariniotakis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Juban;N. Siebert;G. Kariniotakis
风力发电预测工具已经开发了一段时间。大多数此类工具通常提供单值（点）预测。这样的预测限制了在不确定情况下决策工具的使用。在本文中，我们提出了一种方法来产生完整的预测概率密度函数（PDF）。该方法是基于核密度估计技术。初步实验结果表明，该方法速度快，生成的PDF格式完整，与现有方法相当。这些结果是通过法国三个风电场的真实的数据得出的。
Wind power forecasting tools have been developed for some time. The majority of such tools usually provides single-valued (spot) predictions. Such predictions limits the use of tools for decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper we propose a method for producing the complete predictive probability density function (PDF). The method is based on kernel density estimation techniques. The preliminary results show that this method levels with state of the art one while being fast and producing the complete PDF. The results were obtained through real data from three French wind farms.