Occurrence vs abundance models: Differences between species with varying aggregation patterns
Occurrence vs abundance models: Differences between species with varying aggregation patterns
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2012.03.031
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Arroyo, Beatriz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Estrada, Alba;Arroyo, Beatriz
预测分布已成为保护或野生动物管理的一个基本组成部分。建模越来越多地用于确定重要领域（例如，那些更适合于物种或更可能保持高密度的区域）。模型通常使用存在/不存在数据，而不是丰度数据，部分原因是测量丰度比测量存在更困难。我们的目的是测试，如果发生模型和预测的丰度之间的关系不同的两个兄弟物种，不同的巢聚集的水平：蒙塔古的鹞（半殖民地猛禽物种）和母鸡鹞（更多的领土）。我们模拟存在/不存在的分布和每种GLM和大规模的环境变量对的数量，并比较两套模型的预测结果。在母鸡鹞的情况下，存在/不存在模型的预测可靠地确定了该物种密度最高的地区。相比之下，在蒙塔古的鹞，有大的明显有利的地区，预测的繁殖密度低。我们的研究结果表明，育种系统可能会塑造存在/不存在与密度模型之间的关系。在随机或均匀分布的物种中，即使密度发生空间变化，使用存在/不存在模型的结果可能足以进行种群监测。与此相反，对于半殖民地物种，有必要考虑到出现和丰度模型，以确定具有保护重要性或令人关切的领域。有相当数量的鸟类是半集群或聚集物种，因此这些结果可能具有普遍意义。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Predicting distribution has become a fundamental component in conservation or wildlife management. Modelling is increasingly used to identify important areas (e.g., those areas more suitable for a species or more likely to hold high densities). Models often use presence/absence rather than abundance data, partly because measuring abundance is more difficult than measuring presence. We aimed to test if the relationship between occurrence models and predicted abundance varied for two sibling species that differ in the level of nest aggregation: the Montagu's harrier (a semi-colonial raptor species) and the hen harrier (more territorial). We modelled presence/absence distribution and the number of pairs of each species with GLM and large-scale environmental variables, and compared predicted results of both sets of models. In the case of the hen harrier, predictions of the presence/absence model reliably identified areas with highest densities for the species. In contrast, in the Montagu's harrier, there were large apparently favourable areas where predicted breeding density was low. Our results indicate that breeding system is likely to shape the relationship between presence/absence vs density models. In species that are randomly or evenly spaced, even if spatial variations in density occur, using results of presence/absence models is likely to be adequate for population monitoring. In contrast, in the case of semi-colonial species, it is necessary to take into account both occurrence and abundance models to identify areas of conservation importance or concern. There are a considerable number of birds which are semi-colonial or aggregated species, thus these results could have general implications. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.