Potential surface hydrologic responses to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use and land cover changes
Potential surface hydrologic responses to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use and land cover changes
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对温室气体浓度增加以及土地利用和土地覆盖变化的潜在地表水文响应
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5844
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yang Zongliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu Zuheng;Xu Zhongfeng;Ma Zhuguo;Mahmood Rezaul;Yang Zongliang
为了研究温室气体(GHG)浓度增加和土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LULCC)对水文循环各组成部分的影响，利用全耦合社区地球系统模式(CESM)进行了三组数值试验。在第一组实验中，温室气体浓度被设定为工业化前(1850年)的水平，但土地被设定为潜在和现有的植被覆盖。在第二组实验中，温室气体浓度水平被设置为现在(2000年)，土地覆盖再次被设置为潜在和当前的植被。第三组实验与第二组相同，只是使用了不同版本的CESM，以检验LULCC诱导的气候效应的可靠性。在模式中，温室气体浓度的增加导致中高纬度地区在温暖(5-9月)和寒冷(11-3月)季节的降水量和蒸散量在统计上显著增加。LULCC导致东亚、南亚、欧洲和北美半干旱地区的水文循环减弱。在这两个季节，LULCC在改变南亚和欧洲的蒸散量方面比增加的温室气体浓度起着相对更重要的作用。相反，温室气体浓度的增加在决定东亚半干旱地区冷季蒸散量的变化以及这两个季节高纬度地区的降水、蒸散量和径流量的变化方面起着主导作用。在一些地区，土地利用、土地利用的变化引起的变化可以补偿或等于温室气体引起的水循环的变化，特别是在蒸散方面。
To investigate the impacts of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and land use and land cover change (LULCC) on various components of hydrologic cycle, three sets of numerical experiments were performed using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). In the first set of experiments, GHG concentrations were set to preindustrial (1850) levels, but the land was set with potential and current vegetation cover. In the second set of experiments, GHG concentrations levels were set to present day (2000) and land covers were, again set to potential and current vegetation. The third set of experiments was same as the second one, except using a different version of CESM, to examine the reliability of LULCC‐induced climate effects. In the model, the increased GHG concentrations led to statistically significant increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration at mid‐ and high latitudes during both warm (May–September) and cold (November–March) seasons. LULCC caused the weakening hydrological cycle in eastern Asia, southern Asia, Europe, and the semi‐arid region of North America. During both seasons, LULCC plays relatively a more important role than increased GHG concentrations in changing evapotranspiration in southern Asia and Europe. In contrast, increased GHG concentrations play a dominant role in determining changes in evapotranspiration in the semi‐arid region of eastern Asia during the cold season, as well as changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff at high latitudes during both seasons. In some regions, LULCC‐induced changes can compensate or equal to GHG‐induced changes in hydrological cycle, especially in evapotranspiration.