An extended VIKOR method based on entropy measure for the failure modes risk assessment - A case study of the geothermal power plant (GPP)
An extended VIKOR method based on entropy measure for the failure modes risk assessment - A case study of the geothermal power plant (GPP)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2016.10.006
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Fereshteh, Nirumand
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mohsen, Omidvar;Fereshteh, Nirumand
过程设备故障（pef）被认为是过程事故的主要原因之一。失效模式与影响分析（FMEA）作为一种风险评估技术，已广泛应用于各种过程工业。传统形式的FMEA使用严重性(S)、发生(0)和检测(D)三个参数作为风险因素，计算风险优先级数（R.P.N），并根据该数字对故障模式进行排序。但是与FMEA相关的几个缺点限制了它的适用性。本研究旨在开发一种FMEA的扩展，以有效地处理传统FMEA中专家在失效模式排序过程中判断的模糊性和不确定性。在本文中，我们使用Z数的概念来捕捉专家判断中存在的固有不确定性。此外，我们使用香农熵概念来部署客观权重来调整专家分配的主观权重。在此基础上，基于个体后悔最小和群体效用最大，应用模糊VIKOR技术对失效模式进行排序和优先级划分。最后通过数值算例说明了该方法在某地热发电厂中的应用。结果还与传统的FMEA进行了比较。进行敏感性分析以验证所得结果。结果表明，在模糊环境下应用该方法（主客观排序）可以提高传统FMEA方法的适用性。(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Process equipment failures (PEFs) are recognized as one of the leading causes of process accidents. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) as a risk assessment technique, has widely been used in a variety of process industries. The conventional form of FMEA uses three parameters of severity (S), occurrence (0), and detection (D) as risk factors to calculate a risk priority number (R.P.N) and rank the failure modes based on this number. But several shortcomings associated with the FMEA have limited its applicability. This study aims at the development of an extension of FMEA that could efficiently handle the vagueness and uncertainty exists in the experts' judgments in process of failure modes ranking in conventional FMEA. In this paper we used the concept of the Z number to capture the inherent uncertainty exists in the experts' judgments. In addition, we used Shannon entropy concept to deploy objective weights to adjust subjective weights assigned by experts. Furthermore, the fuzzy VIKOR technique applied to rank and prioritize the failure modes based on the minimum individual regret and the maxi group utility. A numerical example is presehted to illustrate an application of the proposed method in a geothermal power plant (GPP). Results are also compared with the conventional FMEA. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the obtained results. Findings indicate that the application of the proposed approach (subjective-objective ranking) in fuzzy environment can improve the applicability of the conventional FMEA method. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.