Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures
Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00484-004-0224-4
复制
发表时间：
2005-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Prieto, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Díaz, J;García, R;Prieto, L
在过去的几年里，极端温度对人类健康的影响的评估受到了极大的关注。本文利用ARIMA和GAM模型检验了极端冬季温度对马德里65岁以上老年人死亡率的影响。数据相当于1986-1997年期间的1815个冬季天数，在此期间总共发生了133000人死亡。日最高温度(T-max)是气候对死亡率影响的最佳温度指标。当考虑总死亡率时，最大影响发生在极端温度后7-8天；对于循环系统疾病，滞后时间在7-14天之间。当考虑呼吸道原因时，4-5天和11天出现两个明显的死亡高峰。当将冬季极端温度的影响与夏季极端温度的影响进行比较时，发现它发生的时间更长，而且似乎更间接。
During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986-1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (T-max) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7-8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4-5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.