Can meta-analysis be used as a decision-making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco-hydrological systems? Case study in Florida: Can meta-analysis be used as a decision making tool in eco-hydrological systems?
Can meta-analysis be used as a decision-making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco-hydrological systems? Case study in Florida: Can meta-analysis be used as a decision making tool in eco-hydrological systems?
复制标题
荟萃分析能否用作开发生态水文系统情景和因果链的决策工具？
DOI：
10.1002/eco.1997
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Sylvester, Siera
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anandhi, Aavudai;Sharma, Anjali;Sylvester, Siera
迄今为止，关于气候变化对生态系统影响评估的研究大量存在。Meta分析、情景发展和因果链/循环已被用作这些评估以及单独或成对组合决策的工具。有必要开发决策支持工具，通过向利益攸关方和管理人员提供定量和及时的信息，改善气候影响研究与规划、管理、适应和缓解决策之间的联系。总体目标是解决这一需求。具体目标是在生态水文应用中开发一种决策支持工具，该工具结合了三个组成部分：元分析、情景开发和因果链/循环。所开发的工具新颖、可靠且及时。在佛罗里达州演示了该工具的使用。32项研究的荟萃分析显示，佛罗里达州的降水变化范围在+30%到- 40%之间，气温变化范围在+6°C到- 3°C之间。在降水变化范围（驱动力）中，以10%的增量模式发展了7个增量情景；在温度变化范围（驱动力）中以1°C的增量模式发展了9个情景。利用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应框架，对佛罗里达州选定的生态系统和环境（如农业生态系统、红树林、水资源和海龟）开发了因果链/循环。驱动力对影响其状态的生态系统或环境施加压力，而生态系统或环境又产生了响应（例如，减缓和适应战略）。该框架使用了从所选生态系统的气候影响评估研究（元分析和其他）中选择的指标，以及作者在该主题上的专业知识来开发链/环。决策工具适用于佛罗里达州内外的利益相关者和任何生态系统。
To date, there are a high volume of studies concerning climate change impact assessments in ecosystems. Meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loops have been used as tools in these assessments as well as in decision making either individually or combined in pairs. There exists a need to develop decision support tools that improve the linkage between climate‐impacts research and planning, management, adaptation, and mitigation decisions by providing quantitative and timely information to stakeholders and managers. The overall goal is to address this need. A specific objective was to develop a decision support tool in eco‐hydrological applications that combine three components: meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loop. The developed tool is novel, warranted, and timely. The use of the tool is demonstrated for Florida. The meta‐analysis of 32 studies revealed precipitation changes ranged between +30% and −40%, and temperature changes ranged from +6°C to −3°C for Florida. Seven incremental scenarios were developed at 10% increments in the precipitation change range and nine scenarios with 1°C increments in the temperature change range (driving forces). The causal chains/loops were developed using Driver‐Pressure‐State‐Impact‐Response framework for selected ecosystems and environment (e.g., agroecosystem, mangroves, water resources, and sea turtles) in Florida. The driving force puts pressure on the ecosystem or environment impacting their state, which in turn had a response (e.g., mitigation and adaptation strategies). The framework used indicators selected from studies on climate impact assessments (meta‐analysis and others) for the selected ecosystems as well as author expertise on the topic to develop the chains/loops. The decision tool is applicable to stakeholders and any ecosystem within and outside of Florida.