Arsenic in groundwater in Bangladesh: A geostatistical and epidemiological framework for evaluating health effects and potential remedies
Arsenic in groundwater in Bangladesh: A geostatistical and epidemiological framework for evaluating health effects and potential remedies
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2002wr001327
复制
发表时间：
2003-06
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Winston H. Yu;C. Harvey;C. Harvey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Winston H. Yu;C. Harvey;C. Harvey
本文探讨了孟加拉国因地下水中溶解砷而造成的健康危机。首先，我们使用地统计方法构建砷浓度地图，将孟加拉国划分为多个区域，并估计这些区域的垂直浓度趋势。然后，我们使用人口普查数据来估计各地区的暴露分布；我们使用西孟加拉邦和台湾的流行病学数据来估计砷中毒和砷诱发癌症的剂量反应函数；我们结合区域暴露分布和剂量反应模型来估计孟加拉国地下水砷对健康的影响。我们预测，长期暴露于目前的砷浓度将导致每年约 1,200,000 例色素沉着过度、600,000 例角化病、125,000 例皮肤癌以及 3000 例内科癌症死亡。尽管这些估计非常不确定，但该方法提供了一个框架，可以在获得更好的数据时纳入其中。此外，我们研究了在孟加拉国选定地区钻更深井的补救措施。通过用更深的井取代该国 31% 的井，只要深井中的砷浓度保持相对较低，饮用地下水砷对健康的影响就可以减少约 70%。
This paper examines the health crisis in Bangladesh due to dissolved arsenic in groundwater. First, we use geostatistical methods to construct a map of arsenic concentrations that divides Bangladesh into regions and estimate vertical concentration trends in these regions. Then, we use census data to estimate exposure distributions in the regions; we use epidemiological data from West Bengal and Taiwan to estimate dose response functions for arsenicosis and arsenic‐induced cancers; and we combine the regional exposure distributions and the dose response models to estimate the health effects of groundwater arsenic in Bangladesh. We predict that long‐term exposure to present arsenic concentrations will result in approximately 1,200,000 cases of hyperpigmentation, 600,000 cases of keratosis, 125,000 cases of skin cancer, and 3000 fatalities per year from internal cancers. Although these estimates are very uncertain, the method provides a framework for incorporating better data as it becomes available. Moreover, we examine the remedy of drilling deeper wells in selected regions of Bangladesh. By replacing 31% of the wells in the country with deeper wells the health effects of drinking groundwater arsenic could be reduced by approximately 70% provided that arsenic concentrations in deep wells remain relatively low.