Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abc3517
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发表时间：
2020-07-10
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Cauchemez, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Salje, Henrik;Kiem, Cecile Tran;Cauchemez, Simon
法国受到严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 大流行的严重影响，并于 2020 年 3 月 17 日进入封锁状态。利用应用于医院和死亡数据的模型，我们估计了封锁和当前人口免疫力的影响。我们发现，2.9% 的感染者住院治疗，0.5% 的感染者死亡（95% 可信区间：0.3% 至 0.9%），范围从 20 岁以下人群的 0.001% 到 80 岁以上人群的 8.3%。在所有年龄段中，男性比女性更有可能住院、进入重症监护室和死亡。封锁将繁殖数从 2.90 减少到 0.67（减少了 77%）。到 2020 年 5 月 11 日，当干预措施计划放松时，我们预计将有 350 万人（范围：210 万至 600 万）或人口的 5.3%（范围：3.3% 至 9.3%）被感染。如果在封锁结束时解除所有控制措施，人口免疫力似乎不足以避免第二波疫情。
France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.