Current practice in the modelling of age, period and cohort effects with panel data: a commentary on Tawfik et al. (2012), Clarke et al. (2009), and McCulloch (2012)
Current practice in the modelling of age, period and cohort effects with panel data: a commentary on Tawfik et al. (2012), Clarke et al. (2009), and McCulloch (2012)
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DOI：
10.1007/s11135-013-9881-x
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jones, Kelvyn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bell, Andrew;Jones, Kelvyn
这篇评论评估了年龄、时期和队列（APC）效应是如何用社会科学中的面板数据建模的。它考虑了2级多层模型的变化，该模型已用于显示同时APC效应的明显证据。我们表明，这样的解释往往是误导性的，并且这些模型的制定和解释需要更好地理解APC效应和它们之间存在的确切共线性。这种解释必须利用理论来证明所提出的主张是正确的。通过比较两篇过度解释该模型的论文和另一篇在我们看来适当解释该模型的论文，我们概述了旨在使用面板数据集寻找APC效应的研究人员的最佳实践，并了解任何统计模型都不可能找到并分离所有三种效应。
This comment assesses how age, period and cohort (APC) effects are modelled with panel data in the social sciences. It considers variations on a 2-level multilevel model which has been used to show apparent evidence for simultaneous APC effects. We show that such an interpretation is often misleading, and that the formulation and interpretation of these models requires a better understanding of APC effects and the exact collinearity present between them. This interpretation must draw on theory to justify the claims that are made. By comparing two papers which over-interpret such a model, and another that in our view interprets it appropriately, we outline best practice for researchers aiming to use panel datasets to find APC effects, with an understanding that it is impossible for any statistical model to find and separate all three effects.