Backlash to fossil fuel phase-outs: the case of coal mining in US presidential elections
Backlash to fossil fuel phase-outs: the case of coal mining in US presidential elections
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac82fe
复制
发表时间：
2022-09-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Schmidt, Tobias S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Egli, Florian;Schmid, Nicolas;Schmidt, Tobias S.
逐步淘汰煤炭是实现国际气候目标的关键杠杆。然而，由此造成的就业机会减少可能会引发选民的反弹，使逐步淘汰的政治代价高昂。在这里，我们提出了一个分析的选举反应，在美国总统选举中使用匹配和接壤的差异中的差异估计的煤矿工作岗位流失。我们的研究结果证实，化石燃料的逐步淘汰可能会导致选民的反弹。在我们的主要规范中，我们发现2012年共和党的投票份额增加了4个百分点（pp）（范围跨越规范）。= 3.6 pp-4.5 pp），2016年降至3.2 pp（各规格范围。= 3.2 pp-4.2 pp），在遭受煤矿业失业的县。据估计，选举反应大约是失业人数的三倍。我们只在失业率高的地方观察到这种反应，这些工作占当地就业机会的很大比例，收入水平低。政党的相对优势不会影响结果。
Phasing out coal is a crucial lever in reaching international climate targets. However, the resulting jobs losses might trigger voter backlash, making phase-outs politically costly. Here, we present an analysis of the electoral response to coal mining job losses in US presidential elections using matched and bordering difference-in-difference estimators. Our findings confirm that fossil fuel phase-outs can result in voter backlash. In our main specification, we find a four percentage-point (pp) increase in the Republican vote share in 2012 (range across specs. = 3.6 pp-4.5 pp), declining to 3.2 pp in 2016 (range across specs. = 3.2 pp-4.2 pp), in counties suffering from coal mining job loss. The estimated electoral response is around three times as large as the number of jobs lost. We observe this response only in places where there was significant job loss, where these jobs accounted for a large share of locally available jobs and where income levels were low. Relative party strengths do not influence the results.