Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.
Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis.
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我们可以确定欧洲未来的土地利用变化吗？多幕科，集成评估分析。
DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.001
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发表时间：
2017-02
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Sandars D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holman IP;Brown C;Janes V;Sandars D
全球土地系统正面临来自不断增长的人口和气候变化的前所未有的压力。了解这些压力可能产生的影响，对于设计土地管理战略以确保粮食安全、提供生态系统服务以及成功地减缓和适应气候是必要的。然而，涉及的复杂的、相互作用的影响的数量使得任何完全的理解都非常困难。然而，综合模拟框架最近的发展使我们能够探索在全球变化的情况下人类和自然系统的共同发展，有可能阐明未来土地系统变化的主要驱动因素和进程。在这里，我们使用一个这样的综合建模框架(CLIMSAVE综合评估平台)来调查欧洲土地系统在本世纪50年代各种气候和社会经济情景下的预测结果范围。我们发现，即使在最不同的情况下，变化的地点和类型也基本一致，结果表明，仅气候变化就会导致欧洲境内的农业和森林面积萎缩，特别是在南欧。这部分被引入的社会经济变化所抵消，这种变化通过改变粮食需求和净进口改变了对农业生产的需求，并提高了农业生产的效率。地中海区域的模拟扩展和废弃是由于南欧农业部门的相对盈利能力未来下降，这是由于高温和干旱压力增加以及灌溉用水减少导致生产率下降所致。欧洲许多地区目前的土地利用比例保持不变的可能性很低(约33%)，这表明未来的政策应寻求促进和支持不同欧洲地区农业和森林的多功能作用，而不是将重点放在提高生产率上，以此作为实现农业和林业生存的途径。未来的欧洲陆地系统是跨情景空间建模的。即使在条件不同的情况下，变化的地点和类型也基本一致，目前边缘农业区可能面临复杂和困难的选择。
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability. Future European land systems modelled across scenario space. Substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under divergent conditions Currently marginal agricultural areas may face complex and difficult choices.