Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America
Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1009510107
复制
发表时间：
2010-08-31
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Hsiang, Solomon M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsiang, Solomon M.
了解地表温度对经济的影响是经济发展和气候变化政策的一个重要问题。本研究表明，在28个加勒比盆地国家，经济产出对温度升高的响应在结构上类似于劳动生产率对高温的响应，这一机制在未来气候变化的经济模型中被忽略了。通过将温度的直接影响与热带气旋的直接影响分离开来（热带气旋是一种重要的相关性），可以证明这种相似性。值得注意的是，非农业生产的产出损失（-2.4%/+1摄氏度）大大超过了农业生产的损失（-0.1%/+1摄氏度）。因此，这些结果表明，当前关注农业影响而忽略工人对热应力的响应的未来气候变化模型可能低估了气候变化的全球经济成本。
Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (-2.4%/+1 degrees C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (-0.1%/+1 degrees C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change.