The demographic transition revisited as a global process
The demographic transition revisited as a global process
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重新审视人口转变作为全球进程
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
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通讯作者：
D. Reher
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作者：
D. Reher
随着世界各地生育率的急剧下降，将人口结构转型理解为一个全球进程越来越重要。虽然这种普遍性是经典转型理论的基石，但几十年来，专家们在很大程度上忽视了这一点，因为发展中国家的生育率似乎没有遵循预期的模式。在比较早期和最近的过渡经验时，可以看到重要的相似之处和差异。各地死亡率的下降似乎对生育率的下降起了核心作用。生育率对死亡率下降的反应时间各不相同，从历史上看差距很小，而在最近的过渡时期差距很长，再加上许多发展中国家的人口动态比率下降速度快得多，这对对这一过程的任何一般性解释构成了重大挑战。最近转型的具体特点导致了几十年来较高的人口增长率，并有可能让位于许多国家更迅速的人口老龄化动态。这可能会限制新来者充分利用人口结构转型促进其社会和经济现代化的能力。版权所有© 2004年约翰威利父子有限公司。
With dramatic declines in fertility taking place throughout the world, it is increasingly important to understand the demographic transition as a global process. While this universality was a cornerstone of classic transition theories, for many decades it was largely neglected by experts because fertility in the developing world did not seem to follow the expected pattern. When comparing earlier and more recent transition experiences, important similarities and disparities can be seen. Everywhere mortality decline appears to have played a central role for fertility decline. The differences in the timing of the response of fertility to mortality decline, with very small gaps historically and prolonged ones in more recent transitions, plus the much more rapid decline in vital rates in many developing countries, constitute an important challenge to any general explanation of the process. The specific characteristics of recent transitions have led to decades of higher population growth rates, and promise to give way to much more rapid dynamics of population ageing in many countries. This may limit the ability of newcomers to take full advantage of the demographic transition for the social and economic modernisation of their societies. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.