National Parks and demographic change – Modelling the effects of ageing hikers on mountain landscape intra-area accessibility
National Parks and demographic change – Modelling the effects of ageing hikers on mountain landscape intra-area accessibility
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.03.001
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发表时间：
2017-07
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
J. Schamel;H. Job
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Schamel;H. Job
随着人口结构的变化，前往国家公园（NP）和其他自然休闲区域的老年徒步旅行者数量将增加。运动医学和交通研究的结果表明，步行速度随着年龄的增长而下降，特别是在山地景观中，这一事实将对这些地区的区域内可达性产生影响。基于353条GPS轨迹、对游客的问卷调查以及覆盖贝希特斯加登国家公园（BNP）案例研究区域步道网络的地理数据库，通过回归模型研究了速度值及其环境和人口统计学决定因素。在GIS中进行网络分析，确定不同年龄组BNP步道网络的可达性。结果表明，除了步道坡度、步道难度、土地利用和海拔等环境特征外，年龄对步行速度有较强的非线性影响。网络建模显示，不同年龄组之间到NP某些区域的步行时间差异可能高达80分钟。这些发现表明，随着人口结构的变化，BNP的区域内可达性可能会下降，这对公园的管理和规划有明显的影响。
With demographic change, the number of older hikers who visit National Parks (NP) and other natural recreational areas will increase. Results from sports medicine and transportation studies suggest that walking speed decreases with growing age, especially in mountainous landscapes, a fact that would have consequences for the intra-area accessibility of these areas. Based on 353 GPS trajectories, a questionnaire applied to visitors, and a geodatabase covering the trail network of the case study area of Berchtesgaden National Park (BNP), speed values and their environmental and demographic determinants are examined by regression modeling. Network analysis was performed in GIS to determine the accessibility of the BNP trail network for different age groups. Results show that in addition to such environmental characteristics as trail slope, trail difficulty, land use and elevation, age has a strong, non-linear influence on walking speed. Network modeling showed that walking times to certain areas in NP may vary by as much as 80 min among different age groups. These findings suggest that intra-area accessibility in the BNP is likely to decline with demographic change, with obvious implications for park management and planning.