Risk-taking in international politics : prospect theory in American foreign policy
Risk-taking in international politics : prospect theory in American foreign policy
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国际政治中的冒险：美国外交政策中的前景理论
DOI：
10.3998/mpub.15779
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
12.9
通讯作者：
R. McDermott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. McDermott
风险在国际关系中扮演着重要的角色，因为领导人会就战争与和平、裁军以及降低贸易和投资的经济壁垒等问题做出决定。一个国家的领导人在制定外交政策决策时如何考虑风险，对于理解他们为什么以及如何做出决策非常重要。罗斯·麦克德莫特（Rose McDermott）将前景理论（prospect theory）应用于美国外交政策的四个案例。前景理论是心理学家开发的一种理论，用于理解风险条件下的决策。前景理论认为，面对损失的决策者比满足于现状的决策者更有可能承担风险。用来证明这种动态的案例包括：苏伊士运河危机、U-2事件、1979年围绕伊朗国王进入美国的决定，以及1980年试图营救伊朗的美国人质。麦克德莫特向我们展示了前景理论是如何帮助我们理解那些原本无法解释的案例的。《国际关系中的风险承担》为国际关系理论提供了一个复杂的心理学模型的独特应用。这本书将引起对决策、国际关系和美国外交政策感兴趣的政治学家和心理学家的兴趣。罗斯·麦克德莫特是康奈尔大学政治学助理教授。
Risk plays a dramatic role in international relations as leaders make decisions about such issues as war and peace, disarmament, and about lowering economic barriers to trade and investment. How a country's leaders think about risk in making foreign policy decisions is important in understanding why and how they make decisions. Rose McDermott applies prospect theory, a theory developed by psychologists to understand decisionmaking under conditions of risk, to four cases in American foreign policy. Prospect theory suggests that decisionmakers who are confronting losses are more likely to take risks than are those decisionmakers who are satisfied with the status quo. The cases used to demonstrate this dynamic include: the Suez Crisis, the U-2 affair, the decisions surrounding the admission of the Shah of Iran to the United States in 1979, and the attempted rescue of the American hostages in Iran in 1980. McDermott shows how prospect theory enables us to understand cases that are otherwise inexplicable. Risk Taking in International Relations offers a unique application of a sophisticated psychological model to international relations theory. The book will be of interest to political scientists and psychologists interested in decision making, in international relations and in American foreign policy. Rose McDermott is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Cornell University.