Next Generation Computers Warrant Next Generation Groundwater Models
Next Generation Computers Warrant Next Generation Groundwater Models
复制标题
下一代计算机保证下一代地下水模型
DOI：
10.1111/gwat.13325
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Engdahl, Nicholas B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Engdahl, Nicholas B.
现代水文模型具有表现地表-地下系统复杂过程的非凡能力。这些能力已经彻底改变了我们概念化流动系统的方式，但是如何在模拟流动系统中表示不确定性还没有得到很好的发展。目前，表征模型不确定性在计算上是昂贵的，部分原因是这些技术是附加在数值方法上的，而不是无缝集成的。然而，下一代计算机提供了重新制定建模问题的机会，以便在流系统模拟中更直接地处理不确定性成分。关于量子计算的误解比比皆是，它们不会是解决所有复杂问题的“银弹”，但它们可能会被用于解决某些高度不确定的问题，比如地下水（GW）。这篇论文的重点是，GW社区可以尝试修改我们模型的基础，以便解决的控制方程是专门为量子计算机量身定制的。前进的目标不应该只是加速我们现有的模型，还要解决它们的缺陷。通过演化分布函数将不确定性嵌入到模型中，将使预测GW建模变得更加复杂，但这样做将问题置于量子计算硬件上高效的复杂性类别中。下一代GW模型可以在模拟一开始就将不确定性纳入问题中，并将其贯穿始终，从而提供一种全新的模拟地下流动的方法。
Modern hydrologic models have extraordinary capabilities for representing complex process in surface‐subsurface systems. These capabilities have revolutionized the way we conceptualize flow systems, but how to represent uncertainty in simulated flow systems is not as well developed. Currently, characterizing model uncertainty can be computationally expensive, in part, because the techniques are appended to the numerical methods rather than seamlessly integrated. The next generation of computers, however, presents opportunities to reformulate the modeling problem so that the uncertainty components are handled more directly within the flow system simulation. Misconceptions about quantum computing abound and they will not be a “silver bullet” for solving all complex problems, but they might be leveraged for certain kinds of highly uncertain problems, such as groundwater (GW). The point of this issue paper is that the GW community could try to revise the foundations of our models so that the governing equations being solved are tailored specifically for quantum computers. The goal moving forward should not just be to accelerate the models we have, but also to address their deficiencies. Embedding uncertainty into the models by evolving distribution functions will make predictive GW modeling more complicated, but doing so places the problem into a complexity class that is highly efficient on quantum computing hardware. Next generation GW models could put uncertainty into the problem at the very beginning of a simulation and leave it there throughout, providing a completely new way of simulating subsurface flows.