Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation
Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.019
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Robins, Dawn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Preston, John;Robins, Dawn
根据1993年的《铁路法》，英国的国家铁路系统被“私有化”，到1997年，大部分组织和所有权的变化都得到了实施。本文探讨了这些变化的长期影响。在研究长期变化时，一个关键问题是反事实，如果这些变化没有发生，会发生什么？开发了客运铁路服务需求的简单计量经济模型，并将其与票价和列车公里等关键变量的外推方法结合使用，以确定需求侧反事实。外推法还用于确定反事实基础设施和列车运营成本。虽然我们的结果对我们所做的关于反事实的假设很敏感，但它们表明了一些影响。自私有化以来，铁路需求强劲增长，但我们的分析表明，过渡中断在很长一段时间内（1992/3至2005/6）抑制了约9%的需求，而哈特菲尔德事故减少了约5%的需求，尽管在较短的时间内（2000/1至2006/7）。一项福利分析表明，尽管消费者似乎从私有化中获益，但大多数年来，这都被成本的增加所抵消。哈特菲尔德事故发生前的两年是个例外。总的来说，改革以来的福利损失远远超过了出售铁路业务的净收入。因此，虽然改革在降低票价和提高服务水平方面比其他改革有好处，但这似乎被增加的基础设施和火车运营成本所抵消。这些高成本的来源仍然是一个猜测的领域，但似乎与市场和监管失败的各个方面有关。(C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Britain's national rail system was 'privatised' as a result of the 1993 Railways Act, with most of the organisational and ownership changes implemented by 1997. This paper examines the long term impacts of these changes. A key issue when examining long term changes is that of the counterfactual what would have happened if the changes had not occurred? A simple econometric model of the demand for passenger rail services was developed and used in conjunction with extrapolative methods for key variables such as fares and train km to determine demand-side counterfactuals. Extrapolative methods were also used to determine counterfactual infrastructure and train operation costs. Although our results are sensitive to the assumptions we have made concerning the counterfactual they suggest a number of impacts. Since privatisation, rail demand has grown strongly but our analysis indicates that transitional disruptions suppressed demand by around 9% over a prolonged period (1992/3 to 2005/6), whilst the Hatfield accident reduced demand by about 5%, albeit over a shorter period (2000/1 to 2006/7). A welfare analysis suggests that although consumers seem to have gained as a result of privatisation, for most years this has been offset by increases in costs. An exception is provided by the two years immediately before the Hatfield accident. Overall the loss in welfare since the reforms were introduced far exceeds the net receipts from the sale of rail businesses. Thus although the reforms have had advantages in terms of lower fares and better service levels than otherwise would have been the case, this appears to have been offset by increased infrastructure and train operations costs. The source of these high costs remains an area of speculation but appear to be related to aspects of both market and regulatory failure. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.