The potential for local croplands to meet US food demand
The potential for local croplands to meet US food demand
复制标题
当地农田满足美国粮食需求的潜力
DOI：
10.1890/140246
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
J. Campbell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Zumkehr;J. Campbell
当地的粮食系统可以促进农业生态实践，保护养分，能源和水资源。然而，人们对地方粮食系统扩大到利基市场之外并满足总粮食需求的很大一部分的潜力知之甚少。在这里，我们估计所有现有的美国农田，以满足美国总的粮食需求，通过当地的粮食网络的上限潜力。我们的空间显式方法模拟了1850年至2000年，并考虑了广泛的饮食，食物浪费，人口分布，耕地面积和作物产量。虽然我们发现，随着时间的推移，当地的粮食潜力下降，特别是在一些沿海城市，我们的研究结果也表明，一个意想不到的大目前的潜力，以满足多达90%的国家粮食需求。这种潜力的下降与人口和农业经济趋势有关，对农业生态系统造成极大的压力，如果不加以控制，可能会严重破坏最近的国家政策。
Local food systems may facilitate agroecological practices that conserve nutrient, energy, and water resources. However, little is known about the potential for local food systems to scale beyond niche markets and meet a substantial fraction of total food demand. Here we estimate the upper potential for all existing US croplands to meet total US food demand through local food networks. Our spatially explicit approach simulates the years 1850 through 2000 and accounts for a wide range of diets, food waste, population distributions, cropland areas, and crop yields. Although we find that local food potential has declined over time, particularly in some coastal cities, our results also demonstrate an unexpectedly large current potential for meeting as much as 90% of the national food demand. This decline in potential is associated with demographic and agronomic trends, resulting in extreme pressures on agroecological systems that, if left unchecked, could severely undermine recent national policies focused on...