Impact-Based Decision Support Services and the Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms
Impact-Based Decision Support Services and the Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms
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基于影响的决策支持服务和冬季风暴的社会经济影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Adkins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Lazo;Heather R. Hosterman;JD Jennifer M. Sprague;J. Adkins
作为“建设全天候国家”战略计划的一部分，美国国家气象局 (NWS) 加大了力度，为负责公共安全的核心合作伙伴提供将预报和预警与决策联系起来的决策支持服务。 2011 年，NWS 正式确定了提供基于影响的决策支持服务 (IDSS) 的方法，以帮助核心合作伙伴更好地了解和利用 NWS 的预测和警报来应对即将到来的极端事件。 IDSS 鼓励天气预报员更好地考虑天气事件的社会影响。这种将重点转向影响的做法确保了 NWS 信息和服务与决策者更加相关，这将使决策者能够利用 NWS 信息和服务采取主动缓解行动来保护生命和财产。这项研究认为，正式的 IDSS 可以为核心合作伙伴提供更好的信息，并支持减少极端冬季风暴期间社会经济影响的决策。我们比较了纽约地区两次具有相似特征但实施 IDSS 不同的风暴：2010 年 12 月的风暴发生在正式 IDSS 实施之前，而 2016 年 1 月的风暴发生在正式 IDSS 实施之后。风暴事件的比较表明，IDSS 和缓解措施减少了航班取消，改善了地面交通部门的恢复时间，并减少了受停电影响的持续时间和客户数量。我们建议未来对 IDSS 价值的研究考虑使用一系列天气事件的案例研究以及其他方法来评估效益。
As part of its strategic plan for Building a Weather-Ready Nation, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has increased their efforts to provide decision support services connecting forecasts and warnings to decision-making for core partners responsible for public safety. In 2011, the NWS formalized their approach to provide impact-based decision support services (IDSS) to help core partners better understand and utilize NWS forecasts and warnings in the face of upcoming extreme events. IDSS encourages weather forecasters to better consider societal impacts from weather events. This shift in emphasis toward impacts ensures NWS information and services are more relevant to decision-makers, which will allow those decision-makers to use NWS information and services to take proactive mitigating actions to protect life and property. This study posits that formal IDSS provides core partners with better information and supports decisions that reduce socioeconomic impacts during extreme winter storms. We compare two storms in the New York City area with similar characteristics but differing in their implementation of IDSS: the December 2010 storm occurred before the implementation of formal IDSS, whereas the January 2016 storm occurred after the implementation of formal IDSS. The comparison of the storm events indicates that IDSS and mitigating actions reduce flight cancellations, improve recovery time in the ground transportation sector, and reduce the duration and number of customers affected by power outages. We recommend that future studies of the value of IDSS consider using case studies for a range of weather events as well as other methodological approaches to assessing benefits.