Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme in Ireland
Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme in Ireland
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.04.014
复制
发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Green, Martin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McAloon, Conor G.;Doherty, Michael L.;Green, Martin J.
牛副结核病是一种以慢性肉芽肿性肠炎为特征的疾病，临床表现为蛋白丢失性肠病，引起腹泻、低蛋白血症、消瘦，最终死亡。一些证据表明可能存在人畜共患病联系，爱尔兰动物卫生部于2013年启动了国家自愿性约翰氏病控制计划。本研究的目的是估计2013-14年期间参加国家自愿JD控制计划的爱尔兰牛群中副结核病的平均水平真实患病率（HTP）和动物水平真实患病率（ATP）。本研究中使用了两个数据集。第一个数据集于2005年在爱尔兰收集（来自119个畜群的5822头动物），并用于构建模型先验。使用主要（2013-14）数据集更新模型先验，该数据集包括1039个奶牛群中99，101头动物的检测记录，并作为国家自愿JD控制计划的一部分生成。最终贝叶斯模型的HTP后验估计值为0.23-0.34，概率为95%。在所有牛群中，发现中位ATP为0.032（0.009，0.145）。这项研究是第一次使用贝叶斯方法来估计副结核病在爱尔兰奶牛群的患病率。HTP的估计高于爱尔兰之前的估计，但仍低于其他主要乳制品生产国的估计。(c)2016年爱思唯尔有限公司
Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterised by chronic granulomatous enteritis which manifests clinically as a protein-losing enteropathy causing diarrhoea, hypoproteinaemia, emaciation and, eventually death. Some evidence exists to suggest a possible zoonotic link and a national voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme was initiated by Animal Health Ireland in 2013. The objective of this study was to estimate herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and animal-level true prevalence (ATP) of paratuberculosis in Irish herds enrolled in the national voluntary JD control programme during 2013-14. Two datasets were used in this study. The first dataset had been collected in Ireland during 2005 (5822 animals from 119 herds), and was used to construct model priors. Model priors were updated with a primary (2013-14) dataset which included test records from 99,101 animals in 1039 dairy herds and was generated as part of the national voluntary JD control programme. The posterior estimate of HTP from the final Bayesian model was 0.23-0.34 with a 95% probability. Across all herds, the median ATP was found to be 0.032 (0.009, 0.145). This study represents the first use of Bayesian methodology to estimate the prevalence of paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. The HTP estimate was higher than previous Irish estimates but still lower than estimates from other major dairy producing countries. (c) 2016 Elsevier B.V.