Global carbon budget 2013
Global carbon budget 2013
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DOI：
10.5194/essd-6-235-2014
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Zaehle, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Quere, C.;Peters, G. P.;Zaehle, S.
准确评估人为二氧化碳(CO2)排放及其在大气、海洋和陆地生物圈之间的重新分配对于更好地了解全球碳循环、支持气候政策的制定和预测未来气候变化非常重要。在这里，我们描述了数据集和一种方法，以量化全球碳预算的所有主要组成部分，包括它们的不确定性，基于一系列数据、算法、统计和模型估计的组合，以及广泛科学界对它们的解释。我们讨论了与先前估计相比的变化，组件内部和组件之间的一致性，以及方法和数据限制。化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产的二氧化碳排放量(E-FF)是基于能源统计数据，而土地利用变化(E-LUC)的排放量，主要是森林砍伐，是基于土地覆盖变化数据、与森林砍伐相关的火灾活动和模型的综合证据。直接测量全球大气CO2浓度，并根据浓度的年变化计算其增长率(G(Atm))。海洋平均CO2汇(S-海洋)是基于20世纪90年代以来的观测数据，而年异常和趋势则是用海洋模型估计的。在本预算中，首次使用基于海洋二氧化碳测量调查的数据产品评估了SOCEAN的可变性。全球陆地剩余二氧化碳汇(S-LAND)是通过全球碳收支的其他项的差异来估计的，并与受观测气候、二氧化碳和土地覆盖变化(一些包括氮-碳相互作用)强迫的独立动态全球植被模型的结果进行了比较。所有不确定性均报告为+/-1西格玛，反映了当前描述全球碳预算每个组成部分的年度估计的能力。在过去十年(2003年至2012年)，E-FF为8.6+/-0.4GTC年(-1)，E-LUC 0.9+/-0.5GTC年(-1)，G(ATM)4.3+/-0.1GTC年(-1)，S-海洋2.5+/-0.5GTC年(-1)，S-LAND 2.8+/-0.8GTC年(-1)。仅就2012年而言，E-Ff增长至9.7+/-0.5GTC年(-1)，比2011年高出2.2%，反映出这些排放的持续增长趋势，GATM为5.1+/-0.2GTC年(-1)，S-海洋为2.9+/-0.5GTC年(-1)，并假设E-Luc为1.0+/-0.5GTC年(-1)(根据2001年至2010年的平均值)，S-LAND为2.7GTC+/-0.9GTC Yr(-1)。与2003-2012年的平均水平相比，2012年的G(ATM)较高，几乎完全反映了较高的EFF。2012年全球大气二氧化碳浓度平均达到392.52+/-0.10ppm。根据对世界国内生产总值的预测和最近经济碳强度的变化，我们估计，2013年E-FF将增长2.1%(1.1-3.1%)，达到9.9+/-0.5GTC，比1990年的排放量高出61%。根据这一预测，1870-2013年二氧化碳累计排放量将达到+/-55GTC，E-FF(390+/-20GTC)约为70%，E-Luc(145+/-50GTC)约为30%。本文还记录了新碳预算中使用的方法和数据集与以往预算相比的任何变化(Le Quere等人，2013年)。此处提供的所有观测数据均可从二氧化碳信息分析中心下载(DOI：10.3334/cdiac/gcp_2013_v2.3)。
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), E-FF was 8.6 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.8 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2012 alone, E-FF grew to 9.7 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and assuming an E-LUC of 1.0 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) (based on the 2001-2010 average), S-LAND was 2.7 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.1% (1.1-3.1 %) to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 +/- 55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from E-FF (390 +/- 20 GtC) and 30% from E-LUC (145 +/- 50 GtC).This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quere et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).