Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions
Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-15-2209-2015
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wisse, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wadey, M. P.;Brown, J. M.;Wisse, P.
2013/14年冬季，英国海岸附近的极端海平面和海浪造成了广泛的沿海洪水和破坏。海岸管理者试图将这种极端情况与预期的防洪标准和自然系统的长期恢复联系起来。在这方面，重现期往往被用作一种指导形式。本文提供了这些水平的冬季风暴，并讨论了他们的应用程序，以给定的数据集为两个英国的案例研究网站：塞夫顿，英格兰西北部，萨福克，英格兰东部。验潮仪记录和波浪浮标数据被用来比较2013/14年风暴与国家数据集的重现期，并结合最近的事件生成了海平面和波高的联合概率。2013/14年的高沃茨和波浪是极端的，这是由于事件的数量，以及2013年12月5日“Xaver”风暴的极端，这在两个案例研究地点都有很高的重现期。这一事件的全国性影响是由于它与多个地点的春季高潮重合。鉴于这一事件在这些观测数据集的联合概率分析中是如此异常，并且该季节连续发生了几起事件，海岸防御似乎提供了良好的保护。今后，这种评估可以与国防业绩和升级一起记录。理想情况下，还应包括其他变量（例如河口位置的河流水位），并适当抵消当地趋势（例如平均海平面上升），以便确定沿海洪水事件的风暴驱动部分。这可以对风暴的严重程度进行长期比较，并评估海平面上升如何随着时间的推移影响回归水平，这对于在战略管理计划中考虑沿海复原力非常重要。
The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.