LITERACY AND VOTING-BEHAVIOR - A BIVARIATE PROBIT MODEL WITH SAMPLE SELECTION
LITERACY AND VOTING-BEHAVIOR - A BIVARIATE PROBIT MODEL WITH SAMPLE SELECTION
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DOI：
10.1006/ssre.1994.1014
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发表时间：
1994-12-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
VENEZKY, RL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
KAPLAN, D;VENEZKY, RL
使用样本选择的双变量probit回归来探索选定的人口统计学和社会政治变量对登记投票和投票的贡献。本研究的数据库是青年成人识字调查（YALS）受访者的一个子集，该调查于1985年对21至25岁的全国分层样本进行管理。单独的概率回归表明，所有选择的自变量都是登记和投票的显著预测因子。然而，单独概率回归所隐含的模型没有考虑到只有那些实际登记投票的人才能投票。当一个更合适的模型，双变量概率回归与样本选择，应用于这些数据，只有硬新闻阅读量和教育年数是投票的重要预测因素，给定登记。对于登记，这些变量，加上民族/种族，电视观看情况，以及一个人跟上政府事务的程度都是重要的预测因素。我们认为，具有样本选择的二元概率模型是建模投票行为的适当和必要的方法。然后我们得出结论，在学校和成人教育课程中，教育的增加以及对硬新闻阅读的增加关注可能导致投票倾向的增加。还提出了本研究的局限性以及改进投票研究所需数据库的建议。(C) 1994学术出版社，Inc.
A bivariate probit regression with sample selection was used to explore the contribution of selected demographic and sociopolitical variables on registering to vote and on voting. The database for this study was a subset of the respondents to the Young Adult Literacy Survey (YALS), administered in 1985 on a stratified national sample of 21- through 25-year-olds. Separate probit regressions showed that all selected independent variables were significant predictors for both registration and voting. However, the model implied by separate probit regressions fails to take into account that only those who actually register to vote can vote. When a more appropriate model, bivariate probit regression with sample selection, was applied to these data only amount of hard news read and years of education were significant predictors of voting, given registration. For registration, these variables, plus ethnicity/race, television viewing, and degree to which one keeps up with governmental affairs were all significant predictors. We argue that a bivariate probit model with sample selection is an appropriate and essential approach for modeling voting behavior. We then conclude that increased education as well as increased attention to hard news reading within school and adult education curricula could lead to increased propensities to vote. The limitations of the present research as well as suggestions for improving the database required for voting studies are also given. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc.