Modelling the impact of global changes on summer european surface ozone levels at the 2050 horizon
Modelling the impact of global changes on summer european surface ozone levels at the 2050 horizon
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模拟 2050 年全球变化对夏季欧洲表面臭氧水平的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Bessagnet
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Clain;S. Szopa;O. Tripathi;R. Vautard;L. Menut;A. Colette;B. Bessagnet
正如IPCC所指出的，气候变化和未来几十年绿色房屋气体排放的演变可能会影响区域污染水平以及背景臭氧水平（Jacob等人，1999年版）：首先，由于绿色室内气体排放量的增加而引起的气候变化可能会导致对空气质量至关重要的气象参数发生变化。第二，空气污染物的排放会受到人口和能源需求的变化，以及旨在减少全球变暖或污染影响的政策的影响。为了评估气候变化和绿色房屋气体排放变化的相对影响，使用CHIMERE模式进行了一系列区域模拟。这些模拟考虑了未来CO2人为前体排放量的变化、通过LMDz-INCA模型的适当边界条件得出的全球背景污染物水平以及反映AR 5情景的未来气象条件。为了保持一致性，所有这些强迫都建立在相同的情景上：RCP 8.5（代表性浓度途径，Riahi等人，2007年）在IPCC-AR 5气候预测框架内制定。RCP 85情景定义为2100年辐射强迫路径上升到8.5 W.m-2。在AR 5框架下，该情景是最悲观的情景。CHIMERE模式进行了两次长期模拟，再现了排放、气候和边界条件的当前（1995-2005）和未来（2045-2055）条件。模拟周期对应于夏季，从每年的7月1日到8月31日。第三组模拟涉及当前气候和未来排放的边界条件。
As pointed by the IPCC, climate change and evolution of green house gases emissions in the coming decades are likely to affect regional pollution levels as well as the background ozone levels (Jacob et al., 1999) : first, the evolution of climate due to the increase of green house gas emissions is liable to induce modifications of the meteorological parameters of crucial interest for air quality. Secondly, the emissions of air pollutants will be affected by changes in population and energy demands as well as policy aiming to reduce global warming or pollution impacts. In order to assess the relative impact of climate change and change in green house gas emissions, a set of regional simulations is conducted using CHIMERE model. These simulations account for change in anthropogenic emissions of precursors from future scenarii, global background pollutant levels through appropriate boundary conditions from LMDz-INCA model, and future meteorological conditions reflectingAR5 scenario. For consistency, all these forcings are built on the same scenario: the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways, Riahi et al., 2007) developed in IPCC-AR5 framework for climate projections. TheRCP85 scenario used in this study is defined by a rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W.m-2 in 2100.In the framework of AR5, this scenario refers to the most pessimistic case. Two long term simulations with CHIMERE model are conducted, reproducing present (1995-2005), future(2045-2055) conditions in emissions, climate, and boundary conditions. The simulated periods correspond to summer, running from July 1st to August 31st each year. A third set of simulations involves present climate and boundary conditions with future emissions.