Final and peak epidemic sizes for SEIR models with quarantine and isolation
Final and peak epidemic sizes for SEIR models with quarantine and isolation
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2007.4.675
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发表时间：
2007-10-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Feng, Zhilan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Zhilan
考虑了检疫和隔离的两个SEIR模型，其中潜伏期和传染期分别假设为指数分布和伽马分布。以往的研究（基于数值观测）表明，与指数分布模型（EDM）相比，伽马分布模型（GDM）倾向于预测更大的流行病峰值和更短的持续时间。通过推导两种模型的最大和最终流行规模的解析公式，我们证明GDM或EDM都可以预测更大的流行峰值或最终流行规模，具体取决于控制措施。这些公式不仅有助于理解模型假设如何影响预测，而且有助于确认，当模型用于公共卫生政策制定时，假设潜伏期和传染期的真实分布是很重要的。
Two SEIR models with quarantine and isolation axe considered, in which the latent and infectious periods axe assumed to have an exponential and gamma distribution, respectively. Previous studies have suggested (based on numerical observations) that a gamma distribution model (GDM) tends to predict a larger epidemic peak value and shorter duration than an exponential distribution model (EDM). By deriving analytic formulas for the maximum and final epidemic sizes of the two models, we demonstrate that either GDM or EDM may predict a larger epidemic peak or final epidemic size, depending on control measures. These formulas are helpful not only for understanding how model assumptions may affect the predictions, but also for confirming that it is important to assume realistic distributions of latent and infectious periods when the model is used for public health policy making.