Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada
Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada
复制标题
开发评估气候变化条件下可能最大降水量 (PMP) 的方法：在加拿大魁北克省南部的应用
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.053
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
C. Ratté
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Rousseau;Iris Maria Klein;D. Freudiger;P. Gagnon;A. Frigon;C. Ratté
在估计可能的最大洪水（PMFs）时需要考虑气候变化（CC）。然而，不存在一种独特的方法来估计PMFs，而且估计PMFs的挑战在于既不应因安全原因低估PMFs，也不应因经济原因高估PMFs。在不考虑CC的情况下估算pmf，加拿大魁北克低估的风险可能很高，因为未来的气候模拟表明，极端降水事件在所有可能性下都将加剧。本文利用加拿大区域气候模式（CRCM）的模拟输出来开发一种方法，在考虑加拿大魁北克省南部地区气候条件变化的情况下，估计可能的最大降水量（pmp）。在这里，ksamogami和Yamaska流域特别值得关注，因为大坝的失败可能会对下游造成重大影响。可降水量(w)是PMPs估算过程中的关键变量之一。平稳性试验结果表明，CC不仅会影响降水和温度，还会影响月最大可降水量、wmax以及由此产生的用于估算PMPs的最大比值。本文发展了一种新的计算方法，利用非平稳频率分析来最大化，然后计算最大化比率。以这种方式估计的比率被认为是可靠的，因为它们很少超过为魁北克设定的阈值，因此提供了一致的PMP估计。结果表明，与最近的过去相比，整个本世纪PMPs总体上显着增加。
Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water,wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximizewusing a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.