Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems
Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.5645
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发表时间：
2005-03-30
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Oliveri, E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aronica, G;Freni, G;Oliveri, E
在城市排水模拟中，降雨时间变异性可以被认为是最关键的知识元素之一，当处理所有的径流模型输入数据。降雨资料的时间分辨率往往低于城市地区的径流模拟要求，大大影响了模型的精度。本文评估了降雨时间分辨率对城市环境中的径流模拟响应的不确定性的影响，并利用在Parco d 'Orleans实验集水区（巴勒莫，意大利）收集的约10年的历史径流数据进行了分析。历史降雨量数据已被视为参考降雨量，和重采样的数据已通过一个可变的时间窗口的重新缩放过程中获得。使用无量纲性能指数进行了“真实”和重新缩放的降雨数据之间的形状比较。已经进行了蒙特卡罗模拟，应用两种不同的全径流模型，使用记录的数据和重新采样的事件。模拟的结果被用来推导出，对于这两个模型，根据GLUE（广义李克森不确定性估计）方法的观察条件下的峰值放电的累积概率。版权所有（c）2005年约翰威利父子有限公司。
In urban drainage modelling, rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical knowledge elements when dealing with rainfall-runoff models input data. The rainfall data temporal resolution usually available for practical applications is often lower than that requested for the rainfall-runoff simulation in urban areas, greatly compromising model accuracy. The present paper evaluates the influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the uncertainty of the response of rainfall-runoff modelling in urban environments.Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall-discharge data collected for about 10 years in Parco d'Orleans experimental catchment (Palermo, Italy). The historical rainfall data have been taken as a reference rainfall, and resampled data have been obtained through a rescaling procedure with variable temporal windows. The shape comparison between 'true' and rescaled rainfall data has been carried out using a non-dimensional performance index. Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out, applying two different rainfall-runoff models, using the recorded data and the resampled events. The results of the simulations were used to derive, for both models, the cumulative probabilities of peak discharges conditioned on the observation according to the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.