Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019
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发表时间：
2019-04-12
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gidden, Matthew J.;Riahi, Keywan;Takahashi, Kiyoshi
我们提出了一套九种情景的未来人为源的排放轨迹，CMIP 6内的ScenarioMIP实验的关键交付。为每个情景提供了14种不同排放种类和13个排放部门的综合评估模型结果，在缩小尺度以提供更高的排放源空间细节之前，使用自动协调从CMIP 6中使用的历史数据一致地过渡到未来轨迹。我们发现，情景跨越了广泛的世纪末的辐射强迫值，从而使这套方案的理想探索各种变暖途径。这组情景的下限为1.9Wm（-2）情景，非常适合分析世纪末气温远低于2摄氏度的世界，上限为8.5Wm（-2）情景，导致比工业化前水平增加近5摄氏度。在这两个极端之间，提供的情况下，强迫结果之间的差异提供统计上显着的区域温度结果，以最大限度地提高其有用性CMIP 6内的下游实验。CMIP 6为科学界提供了广泛的情景数据产品，包括全球、区域和网格化排放数据集。
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9Wm(-2) scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 degrees C, and on the high end by a 8.5W m(-2) scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.