Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025 - Prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections
Global burden of diabetes, 1995-2025 - Prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections
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DOI：
10.2337/diacare.21.9.1414
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发表时间：
1998-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Herman, WH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
King, H;Aubert, RE;Herman, WH
目的-估计糖尿病的患病率和糖尿病患者的人数谁是大于或等于20岁的世界所有国家的三个时间点，即，1995年，2000年和2025年，并计算额外的参数，如性别比，城乡比，和糖尿病population.Research设计和方法的年龄结构-糖尿病患病率的具体估计适用于联合国人口估计和预测的人数大于或等于20岁的成年人在世界上所有国家。对于发展中国家，城市和农村人口被认为是分开的。结果-糖尿病在世界范围内的成年人的患病率估计为4.0%，在1995年，到2025年上升到5.4%。在发达国家比发展中国家高。世界上患有糖尿病的成年人人数将从1995年的1.35亿增加到2025年的3亿。这一数字增加的主要部分将发生在发展中国家。发达国家将增加42%，从5 100万增加到7 200万，发展中国家将增加170%，从8 400万增加到2.28亿。因此，到2025年，超过75%的糖尿病患者将居住在发展中国家，而1995年为62%。糖尿病患者人数最多的国家是印度、中国和美国，2025年将是如此。在发展中国家，大多数糖尿病患者的年龄在45-64岁之间。在发达国家，大多数糖尿病患者的年龄大于或等于65岁。到2025年，这一模式将更加突出。女性糖尿病患者多于男性，尤其是在发达国家。在未来，糖尿病将越来越集中在城市地区。结论-本报告支持早期的预测糖尿病的流行性质在世界上在第一季度的21世纪世纪它还提供了一个临时图片的特点流行。在全球范围内监测糖尿病是预防和控制糖尿病的必要的第一步，这是目前公认的当务之急。
OBJECTIVE - To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are greater than or equal to 20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urban-rural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to United Nations population estimates and projections for the number of adults aged greater than or equal to 20 years in all countries of the world. For developing countries, urban and rural populations were considered separately.RESULTS - Prevalence of diabetes in adults worldwide was estimated to be 4.0% in 1995 and to rise to 5.4% by the year 2025. It is higher in developed than in dweloping countries. The number of adults with diabetes in the world will rise from 135 million in 1995 to 300 million in the year 2025. The major part of this numerical increase will occur in developing countries. There will be a 42% increase, from 51 to 72 million, in the developed countries and a 170% increase, from 84 to 228 million, in the developing countries. Thus, by the year 2025, >75% of people with diabetes will reside in developing countries, as compared with 62% in 1995. The countries with the largest number of people with diabetes are, and will be in the year 2025, India, China, and the U.S. In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45-64 years. In the developed countries, the majority of people with diabetes are aged greater than or equal to 65 years. This pattern will be accentuated by the year 2025. There are more women than men with diabetes, especially in developed countries. In the future, diabetes will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas.CONCLUSIONS - This report supports earlier predictions of the epidemic nature of diabetes in the world during the first quarter of the 21st century It also provides a provisional picture of the characteristics of the epidemic. Worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step toward its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.