The progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts-for-differences in the UK electricity market
The progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts-for-differences in the UK electricity market
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.002
复制
发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
D. Bunn;T. Yusupov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Bunn;T. Yusupov
本文着眼于随着传统批发电力市场逐步脱碳，新可再生资产的风险/回报概况。使用详细的价格形成风险基本模型，在陆上和海上风电取代化石燃料设施的情况下，我们发现随着时间的推移，风险回报曲线变得不那么有吸引力，因此可能需要持续的、可能增加的政策支持。此外，我们表明，与固定上网电价相比，绿色证书交易作为对批发价格的补充支持可能会逐渐变得更具吸引力。这是因为，如果其他因素保持不变，与固定上网电价相比，可再生能源产量与批发价格之间日益增强的负相关性降低了其收入风险，从而改善了传统的财务绩效风险指标。特别是，这表明英国最近能源政策的变化——从绿色证书转向差异合同——可能是没有根据的。
This paper looks at the emerging risk/return profile for new renewable assets as a conventional wholesale electricity market progressively decarbonises. Using a detailed fundamental model of price formation risks, under increasing replacement of fossil fuel facilities with onshore and offshore wind, we show that the risk return profile becomes less attractive over time, and may therefore need sustained and possibly increasing policy support. Furthermore, we show that green certificate trading may become progressively more attractive as a supplementary support to wholesale prices, compared to fixed feed-in-tariffs. This is because the increasingly negative correlation between renewable output and wholesale prices reduces its revenue risk compared to fixed feed-in tariffs, if other factors remain constant, and thereby improves conventional financial performance risk metrics. In particular, this suggests that the recent energy policy change in Britain to move away from green certificates and into contracts-for-differences may have been ill-founded.