The impact of forecasting errors and remedial actions on operational security and efficiency in classical and probabilistic market coupling
The impact of forecasting errors and remedial actions on operational security and efficiency in classical and probabilistic market coupling
复制标题
经典和概率市场耦合中预测错误和补救措施对运营安全和效率的影响
DOI：
10.1109/pscc.2014.7038490
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Rehtanz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sven C. Müller;V. Liebenau;S. Ruthe;Christopher Spieker;C. Kittl;Stefan Dalhues;D. Mayorga;V. Franz;C. Rehtanz
管理不确定性成为电力系统的一个主要挑战，具有高度渗透的挥发性发电和负荷。相反，由于智能电网和更灵活的技术的发展，输电系统的可控性增加。本文概述了一种在不同市场耦合（MC）方法背景下分析不确定性和运营灵活性影响的方法。特别是，可再生能源（RES）的预测误差的概率密度函数进行评估，并应用在案例研究建模MC在CWE地区。此外，概率约束流为基础的MC建模方法作为一个更保守的替代经典的流为基础的MC。模拟结果强调，有一个权衡之间的保守约束调度在一个更严格的供应安全域的一方面和经济成本和必要的削减RES的另一方面。正在解决的一个关键方面是在算法中考虑补救措施。考虑到不确定性会收紧供应安全域，而考虑到对不确定性和（N-I）情况的反应能力时，市场结果会变得不那么受约束。
Managing uncertainties becomes a major challenge in power systems with a high penetration of volatile generation and load. On the contrary, the controllability of the transmission system increases due to the evolution of a smart grid and more flexible technologies. In this paper a methodology for analyzing the impact of uncertainties and operational flexibility in the context of different market coupling (MC) approaches is outlined. In particular, probability density functions of forecasting errors of renewable energy sources (RES) are evaluated and applied in a case study modeling MC in the CWE region. Further, a modeling approach for probabilistic constrained flow-based MC is presented as a more conservative alternative to classical flow-based MC. The simulation results underline that there is a trade-off between being conservative by constraining the dispatch in a tighter security-of-supply domain on the one hand and the economic costs and necessary curtailment of RES on the other hand. A key aspect being addressed is the consideration of remedial actions in the algorithms. Whereas accounting for uncertainties tightens the security-of-supply domain, the market results become less constrained when accounting for the ability to react to uncertainties and to (N-l)-cases.