Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market
Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2021.09.048
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Luis Felipe Costa Sperb;M. Sung;Tiejun Ma;Johnnie E. V. Johnson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luis Felipe Costa Sperb;M. Sung;Tiejun Ma;Johnnie E. V. Johnson
许多基于实验室的研究提供了证据，表明温度可以通过影响人们的风险偏好和犯认知错误的倾向来影响人们的决策方式。然而，在现实环境中，温度对决策质量的影响还没有得到很好的理解。金融市场上的一些文献试图对此进行探讨，但结果一直没有定论：一些研究表明温度不会影响金融决策，而另一些研究则得出了截然相反的结论——一些研究表明温度升高，另一些则认为温度降低，会降低金融决策的质量和经济价值。我们设计了一个实证实验来克服以往研究的局限性，以揭示温度在金融决策中的作用。该研究采用的数据来自国有或有资产的限时市场，即事件驱动的预测市场。我们评估预测市场参与者对事件概率的主观判断偏离事件实际发生概率的程度，这是由于温度导致的认知错误和冒险行为。结果表明，温度越高，决策质量越低。我们还发现，温度差异对具有不同决策特征的人的决策有不同的影响，对那些决策基于逻辑、客观性和对备选方案的熟练认知评估的人的影响最大。
Many laboratory-based studies provide evidence that temperature can influence how people make decisions, by affecting their risk preferences and propensity to make cognitive errors. However, the role of temperature on the quality of decisions made in real-world settings it is not well-understood. A strand of literature in financial markets has attempted to explore this, but the results have been inconclusive: some studies suggest that temperature does not affect financial decisions, whilst others reach contrasting conclusions-some suggesting that higher, and others that lower temperatures, reduce the quality and economic value of financial decisions. We design an empirical experiment to overcome the limitations of previous studies in order to shed new light on the role of temperature in financial decisions. The study employs data from a time-limited market for state-contingent assets, namely an event-driven prediction market. We assess the extent to which prediction market participants’ subjective judgments of event probabilities deviate from the actual probability of the event occurring, as a result of temperature-induced cognitive errors and risk-taking. The results demonstrate that higher temperatures are associated with lower decision quality. We also found that temperature differentially influences the decisions of those with different decision profiles, with the largest influence observed on individuals whose decisions are based on logic, objectivity and skilful cognitive evaluations of alternatives.