Application of multi-parameter population model based on endogenous population biomarkers and flow volume in wastewater epidemiology
Application of multi-parameter population model based on endogenous population biomarkers and flow volume in wastewater epidemiology
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143480
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发表时间：
2021-01-06
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Di, Bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hou, Chenzhi;Chu, Tingting;Di, Bin
采用基于多参数种群模型的废水流行病学方法，对河北省20个污水处理厂的安赛胺、咖啡因、扑热息痛和金刚烷胺的消费量或流行率进行了估算。为了最大限度地减少WBE中种群估计带来的不确定性，采用层次分析法（AHP）计算权重因子，建立了基于种群生物标志物等效种群和流量-种群的多参数种群模型。选择4-吡哆酸（4-PA）、可替宁、反式-3′-羟基可替宁（反式-3′- oh - cot）和1,4-甲基咪唑乙酸（MIAA）作为群体生物标志物。与人口普查数据相比，估计的模型人口显示出最高的相关性（r(2) = 0.97, p < 0.01）和最低的变异（单因素方差分析，p = 0.82，平均变异：-0.1%），表明更好的人口估计。安赛蜜、咖啡因、扑热息痛和金刚烷胺的估计消耗量分别为6.7 +/- 2.4 mg/天/小时、50.5 +/- 38.5 mg/天/小时、61.5 +/- 52.7mg/天/小时和0.52 +/- 0.33 mg/天/小时。同时，扑热息痛和金刚烷胺的患病率分别为5.3%+/- 4.5%和0.28%+/- 0.18%。估算结果与国内前期研究结果一致，也与销售数据（安赛蜜和扑热息痛）计算的消费量一致。此外，不确定性研究表明，采用多参数种群模型可以降低种群相关的不确定性。结果表明，本研究构建的多参数种群模型在WBE中是可行的，并且可以降低种群估计的不确定性。(C) 2020年Elsevier B.V.出版
The consumption or prevalence of acesulfame, caffeine, paracetamol and amantadine was estimated by wastewater-based epidemiology based on a multi-parameter population model in 20 sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Hebei province, China. To minimize the uncertainties contributed by population estimation in WBE, a multi-parameter population model was established based on the population biomarkers equivalent population and flow volume-population with the weight factors calculated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). 4-Pyridoxic acid (4-PA), cotinine, trans-3'-hydroxycotinine (trans- 3'-OH-Cot) and 1,4-methylimidazole acetic acid (MIAA) were selected as population biomarkers. The estimated model population showed the highest correlations (r(2) = 0.97, p < 0.01) and lowest variation (one way-ANOVA, p = 0.82, mean variation: -0.1%) comparing to the census data, suggestion better population estimation. The estimated consumption of acesulfame, caffeine, paracetamol and amantadine was 6.7 +/- 2.4 mg/day/inh, 50.5 +/- 38.5 mg/day/inh, 61.5 +/- 52.7mg/day/inh and 0.52 +/- 0.33 mg/day/inh, respectively. Meanwhile, the prevalence of paracetamol and amantadinewas calculated to be 5.3%+/- 4.5% and 0.28%+/- 0.18%, respectively. The estimated results were consistent with that of previous researches in China andwere also in accordance with the consumption calculated by sales data (acesulfame and paracetamol). Moreover, uncertainty study showed decrease in population-associated uncertainties by using a multi-parameter population model. The results demonstrated that the multi-parameter population model constructed in this research is feasible to apply in WBE and might lead to lower uncertainties in population estimation. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.