THE CHALLENGE OF FORECASTING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN REGION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE .2. FORECAST TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATIONS
THE CHALLENGE OF FORECASTING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN REGION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE .2. FORECAST TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATIONS
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010
复制
发表时间：
1995-03-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
CARTER, GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
OPITZ, HH;SUMMER, SG;CARTER, GM
多年来，随着对暴雨事件结构和气候频率的认识和理解不断加深，国家和地方层面的预报指导也有了相应的改进。国家气象局 (NWS) 外地办事处开发了许多操作程序、预报应用程序和客观技术，以评估强降水和洪水的可能性。使用简单模型和业务清单，以及识别由于地形和当地气候影响而导致的降水增强，为预报员提供了有用的工具，帮助解释和改进中央指导产品。此外，西北地区东部地区还制定并实施了一项积极而全面的计划，以支持每日制定定量降水估算，以进行更及时、更准确的河流预报。最后，通过多普勒雷达、垂直风廓线仪、闪电探测网络和下一代地球静止卫星等新型遥感器技术获取高分辨率信息，有可能大幅改善强降水的预测。
Over the years, as the recognition and understanding of the structure and climatic frequency of heavy-rain events has expanded, there has been a corresponding improvement in the available forecast guidance on both the national and local level. Numerous operational procedures, forecast applications, and objective techniques have been developed at National Weather Service (NWS) field offices to assess the potential for heavy precipitation and flooding. The use of simple models and operational checklists, as well as the identification of precipitation enhancements due to the effects of terrain and local climatology, provide forecasters with useful tools that help interpret and improve upon the central guidance products. In addition, the NWS Eastern Region has devised and implemented an aggressive and comprehensive program to support the daily formulation of quantitative precipitation estimates appropriate for the production of more timely and accurate river forecasts. Finally, access to high-resolution information from new remote sensor technologies such as Doppler radar, vertical wind profilers, lightning detection networks, and the next generation of geostationary satellites presents the possibility of a substantial improvement in the prediction of heavy precipitation.