Loan Portfolio Performance and El Niño, an Intervention Analysis
Loan Portfolio Performance and El Niño, an Intervention Analysis
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贷款组合绩效和厄尔尼诺现象，干预分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
J. Skees
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Collier;Ani L. Katchova;J. Skees
目的-本文件说明自然灾害可严重威胁为穷人服务的金融机构。作者测试了北方秘鲁的一家小额信贷机构（MFI）的案例，在那里，严重的厄尔尼诺事件造成了灾难性的洪水。设计/方法/方式-投资组合水平，每月数据从1994年1月至2008年10月进行了检查，使用干预分析。该文件测试了1997-1998年厄尔尼诺现象是否增加了问题贷款，并估计了影响的程度。结果-结果表明，厄尔尼诺现象显着增加的问题贷款，特别是重组贷款的水平。虽然在厄尔尼诺现象之前，重组的贷款平均占贷款组合总额的0.5%，但厄尔尼诺现象的估计累积影响表明，由于这一事件，组合价值中有3.6%被重组。研究限制/影响-未来的研究可以建立在这些结果的基础上，通过建模的保险型机制的小额信贷机构。在另一种情况下复制这些分析的其他研究对于自然灾害和金融机构之间的比较非常有价值。实际影响-研究结果表明，许多小借款人的相关风险暴露可以显着影响贷款人和考虑银行管理在评估金融机构的灾害风险的重要性。社会影响-尽量减少损失的应急战略可能需要长期的结构调整，使灾害对社区的影响永久化。独创性/价值-本文可能是特别有价值的研究人员和从业人员，希望提高的有效性和效率集中在暴露于自然灾害风险的地区的小额供资机构。
Purpose - This paper illustrates that natural disasters can significantly threaten financial institutions serving the poor. The authors test the case of a microfinance institution (MFI) in Northern Peru, where severe El Nino events create catastrophic flooding. Design/methodology/approach - Portfolio-level, monthly data from January 1994 to October 2008 were examined using an intervention analysis. The paper tested whether the 1997-1998 El Nino increased problem loans and estimated the magnitude of the effect. Findings - The results indicate El Nino significantly increased problem loans, specifically the level of restructured loans. While restructured loans averaged 0.5 percent of the total loan portfolio before the El Nino, the estimated cumulative effect of El Nino indicates that an additional 3.6 percent of the portfolio value was restructured due to this event. Research limitations/implications - Future research could build on these results by modeling insurance-type mechanisms for the MFI. Additional research that replicates these analyses in another context would be highly valuable for comparison across natural disasters and financial institutions. Practical implications - The findings demonstrate that the correlated risk exposure of many small borrowers can significantly affect the lender and the importance of considering bank management in assessing disaster risk of a financial institution. Social implications - Lender strategies to minimize losses may require long-term restructuring that perpetuates the effects of the disaster in the community. Originality/value - This paper may be of particular value to researchers and practitioners hoping to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of MFIs concentrated in regions exposed to natural disaster risk.