Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies
Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies
复制标题
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289
复制
发表时间：
2010-08-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Swanepoel, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anyamba, Assaf;Linthicum, Kenneth J.;Swanepoel, Robert
自 20 世纪 50 年代初以来，历史上裂谷热 (RVF) 的爆发与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO) 现象的周期性模式有关，导致非洲裂谷热流行地区降雨量增加且大范围分布。利用全球和区域海面温度升高、降雨量增加的卫星测量数据以及卫星导出的标准化差异植被指数数据，我们以2-4个月的提前时间预测了2006年9月至2008年3月不同时间段非洲之角、苏丹和南部非洲预计会发生人类和动物裂谷热爆发的地区。对病毒活动的昆虫学现场调查以及报告的人类和牲畜裂谷热病例证实了这一预测。这代表了裂谷热爆发的第一系列前瞻性预测，并为未来改进早期预警、控制、响应计划和缓解提供了基线。
Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.