Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
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DOI：
10.1029/2005gl023272
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发表时间：
2005-09-13
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Brown, SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Emori, S;Brown, SJ
在未来气候变化的背景下，极端降水量的增加将超过平均值，但其机制尚不清楚。我们已经分离出的“动力”和“热力”组件的平均和极端的降水变化预测在6个气候模式的实验。动力学变化是由于大气运动的变化，而热力学变化是由于大气含水量的变化。模式结果一致表明，平均降水热力变化主要在副热带地区存在小变化或减小的区域，而极端降水热力变化则是由于大气湿度的增加而总体增大。动态变化在平均值和极端值之间的差异中起次要作用，并且仅限于低纬度地区。在中高纬度的许多地区，由于热力学的增加，平均和极端降水量的增加幅度相当。
Extreme precipitation has been projected to increase more than the mean under future changed climate, but its mechanism is not clear. We have separated the 'dynamic' and 'thermodynamic' components of the mean and extreme precipitation changes projected in 6 climate model experiments. The dynamic change is due to the change in atmospheric motion, while the thermodynamic change is due to the change in atmospheric moisture content. The model results consistently show that there are areas with small change or decreases in the thermodynamic change for mean precipitation mainly over subtropics, while the thermodynamic change for extreme precipitation is an overall increase as a result of increased atmospheric moisture. The dynamic changes play a secondary role in the difference between mean and extreme and are limited to lower latitudes. Over many parts of mid- to high latitudes, mean and extreme precipitation increase in comparable magnitude due to a comparable thermodynamic increase.