The economic impacts of climate change on the rice production in Malaysia.
The economic impacts of climate change on the rice production in Malaysia.
复制标题
气候变化对马来西亚稻米生产的经济影响。
DOI：
10.3923/ijar.2011.67.74
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Bagheri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Vaghefi;M. Shamsudin;A. Abdullah;M. Bagheri
本研究试图估计气候变化对马来西亚稻米生产的潜在影响。利用作物模型ORYZA 2000模拟了1999-2007年马来西亚8个粮仓区MR 219品种的水稻产量。该模型预测，在当前CO2浓度为383 ppm的情况下，温度升高2°C，水稻产量将减少0.36t ha-1。随着稻米产量的减少，马来西亚稻米产业的经济损失估计为每年1.62531亿令吉。在CO2浓度从383 ppm增加到574 ppm，温度上升2°C的情况下，可以预测水稻产量也将下降0.69 t ha-1，因此水稻产业每年的经济损失将达到2.99145亿令吉。针对上述潜在影响，提出了应对气候变化对水稻生产不利影响的适应和减缓策略。
This study attempts to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the rice production in Malaysia. The crop model ORYZA2000 was used to simulate rice yield of MR 219 variety in eight granary areas of Malaysia from 1999-2007. The model predicted a reduction in rice yield of 0.36 t ha -1 under the scenario of an increase in temperature by 2°C and at the current CO 2 level of 383 ppm. With the reduction in rice yield, the economic loss to the Malaysian rice industry was estimated at RM162.531 million per year. Under the scenario of increase of CO 2 concentration from 383 to 574 ppm and with 2°C rise in temperature, it can be predicted that there will also be a decline in rice yield by 0.69 t ha -1 and consequently the economic loss will be at RM299.145 million per year for the rice industry. With the above potential impacts, some adaptation and mitigation strategies to overcome the adverse effects of climate change on rice production were recommended.