MODELING THE 1985 INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC IN FRANCE
MODELING THE 1985 INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC IN FRANCE
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780071107
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发表时间：
1988-11-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
VALLERON, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
FLAHAULT, A;LETRAIT, S;VALLERON, AJ
Rvachev-Baroyan-Longini模型是一个流感流行的时空预测模型。它已被应用于苏联的128个城市，最近，预测了1968-1969年大流行病在52个大城市的传播。它是一个确定性的、质量作用的、空间和时间连续的模型。该模型已被应用于模拟的流感流行的1984-1985年在22个法国大都市区和结果。使用法国传染病网络数据对模型参数进行了估计。这些参数是接触率a（估计值= 0.55），即感染个体每天接触足以通过感染的人数，以及感染期1/B，估计为2.49天。从i区到j区的年平均铁路客运量因地区而异，从0到1，991，000人不等。计算机显示的流行病传播情况在每周地图上显示。调查结果还以地区图表的形式列出，列出了地区流行病的规模和流行病高峰期的时间。18个地区中有17个地区计算的峰值大小与真实的峰值大小相差不到100%，18个地区中有14个地区计算的峰值时间与观测的峰值时间相差不到两周，由此判断计算机拟合的精度令人满意。虽然如能提供更详细的客运资料，可以提高精确度，但法国对该模式的使用令人满意。
The Rvachev-Baroyan-Longini model is a space-time predictive model of the spread of influenza epidemics. It has been applied to 128 cities of the USSR, and more recently, to forecasting the spread of the pandemic of 1968-1969 throughout 52 large cities. It is a deterministic, mass-action, space and time continuous model. The model has been applied to the simulation of the influenza epidemic of 1984-1985 in the 22 French Metropolitan districts and results are presented. Estimates of the parameters of the model were made using the French Communicable Diseases Network data. These parameters are the contact rate, a, (estimate = 0.55) which is the number of people with whom an infestious individual will make contact daily sufficient to pass infection and the infectious period, 1/b, estimated as 2.49 days. The mean annual railroad passenger traffic from district i to district j varies from 0 to 1,991,000 persons depending on the districts. The computer spread of the epidemic is presented on weekly maps. Results are also presented on district charts, giving the size of district epidemics and the time of peak of the epidemic. The precision of the computer fittings was judged satisfactory by the calculated size of peak differing from the real one by less than 100 per cent, in 17 out of 18 districts, and by the calculated time of peak differing from the observed by less than two weeks in 14 out of 18 districts. Although precision could be improved with more detailed information about passenger traffic, the French use of the model has been satisfactory.