The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets
The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1104-5
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Johansson, Daniel J. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hedenus, Fredrik;Wirsenius, Stefan;Johansson, Daniel J. A.
就农业而言，减少温室气体(GHG)排放有三个主要选择：1)提高生产力，特别是在畜牧业；2)专门的技术缓解措施；以及3)改变人类饮食。本白皮书的目的是估计不同缓解情景下的长期农业温室气体排放量，并将它们与2摄氏度的目标相适应的排放空间联系起来。我们的估计包括2070年前农业土壤、粪便管理、肠道发酵和稻田的排放量，并基于IPCC Tier 2方法。我们发现，到2070年，农业二氧化碳当量基线排放量(使用全球变暖潜力，时间跨度为100年)将约为每年13亿吨CO(2)当量/年，而2000年为7.1亿吨二氧化碳当量/年。然而，如果畜牧业生产力的更快增长与专门的技术缓解措施相结合，到2070年，排放量可能保持在7.7亿吨CO(2)当量/年。如果包括人类饮食的结构性变化，排放量可能会进一步减少，到2070年降至每年3-5公吨CO(2)eq。2070年，对于所有行业来说，达到2摄氏度目标的年总排放量有可能超过50%，约为13Gton CO(2)eq/年或更少。我们得出的结论是，除非出现前所未有的技术进步，否则要实现2摄氏度的目标，减少反刍动物的肉类和乳制品消费将是必不可少的。
For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 A degrees C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO2-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO(2)eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3-5 Gton CO(2)eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 A degrees C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO(2)eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 A degrees C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.