Effect of topography on the risk of malaria infection in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania
Effect of topography on the risk of malaria infection in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.11.005
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发表时间：
2004-07-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Lindsay, SW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Balls, MJ;Bodker, R;Lindsay, SW
我们调查了坦桑尼亚Usambara山区疟疾寄生虫感染的风险是否与地形有关。临床调查进行了7个村庄，位于海拔300米至1650米的态度。每个村庄都被绘制成地图，并被纳入数字地形模型。单变量分析显示，脾肿大的风险随着态度的提高和水积聚的可能性的降低而降低。Logistic回归分析表明，态度赎罪可以正确预测73%的住户有一个扩大的脾脏或没有。将每个家庭400米范围内的水可能积聚的土地包括在内，使整个模型的准确性略微提高到76%，但显着改善了1000米至1200米之间的预测，其中疟疾不稳定，可能是流行病。这种新颖的方法说明了地形学如何帮助确定非洲高地容易发生流行病的地方。(C)2004年皇家热带医学和卫生学会。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
We investigated whether the risk of infection with malaria parasites was related to topography in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. Clinical surveys were carried out in seven villages, situated at attitudes from 300 m to 1650 m. Each village was mapped and incorporated into a Digital Terrain Model. Univariate analysis showed that the risk of splenomegaly declined with increasing attitude and with decreasing potential for water to accumulate. Logistic regression showed that attitude atone could correctly predict 73% of households where an occupant had an enlarged spleen or not. The inclusion of land where water is Likely to accumulate within 400 m of each household increased the accuracy of the overall model slightly to 76%, but significantly improved predictions between 1000m and 1200m, where malaria is unstable, and likely to be epidemic. This novel approach illustrates how topography could help identify local areas prone to epidemics in the African highlands. (C) 2004 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.