The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051
The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051
复制标题
1992 年至 2051 年平流层气候对混合良好的温室气体浓度预计变化的响应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. L. Gallani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Butchart;J. Austin;J. Knight;Adam A. Scaife;M. L. Gallani
摘要本文给出了英国对流层-平流层结构两个60年积分的结果。Met.办公室的统一模式这两次合并都是一样的，只是初始条件不同，但都是1990年代初的代表。辐射加热率的计算使用了政府间气候变化专门委员会提供的IS 92 A预测的混合良好的温室气体浓度，但平流层臭氧和水蒸气的变化没有包括在内。海面状况取自一个单独的海洋-大气耦合实验。这两个积分都再现了对流层变暖和平流层冷却的熟悉模式，在1 mb处，平流层冷却随高度增加到每十年约-1.4 K。除了极地平流层上部以及在更大程度上极地平流层下部至中部以外，其他地区的趋势都很一致，因为在冬季的几个月里，这些地区的年际变化很大。甚至...
Abstract Results are presented from two 60-yr integrations of the troposphere–stratosphere configuration of the U.K. Met. Office’s Unified Model. The integrations were set up identically, apart from different initial conditions, which, nonetheless, were both representative of the early 1990s. Radiative heating rates were calculated using the IS92A projected concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but changes in stratospheric ozone and water vapor were not included. Sea surface conditions were taken from a separate coupled ocean–atmosphere experiment. Both integrations reproduced the familiar pattern of tropospheric warming and a stratospheric cooling increasing with height to about −1.4 K per decade at 1 mb. There was good agreement in the trends apart from in the polar upper stratosphere and, to a greater extent, the polar lower-to-middle stratosphere, where there is significant interannual variability during the winter months. Even...