THYROID CANCER STUDY AMONG UKRAINIAN CHILDREN EXPOSED TO RADIATION AFTER THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE THYROID DOSES TO THE COHORT MEMBERS
THYROID CANCER STUDY AMONG UKRAINIAN CHILDREN EXPOSED TO RADIATION AFTER THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE THYROID DOSES TO THE COHORT MEMBERS
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DOI：
10.1097/hp.0b013e31829f3096
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Bouville, Andre
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Likhtarov, Ilya;Kovgan, Lina;Bouville, Andre
在乌克兰辐射医学研究中心的合作下，美国国家癌症研究所启动了一项队列研究，研究对象是乌克兰暴露于氯诺贝利放射性粉尘的儿童和青少年，以更好地了解放射性碘暴露对健康的长期影响。所有13,204名队列成员在1986年4月30日至6月30日期间至少接受了一次直接甲状腺测量，并在事故发生时居住在基辅、日托米尔或切尔尼希夫Oblast的北部地区，这些地区是乌克兰Chornobyl事故造成的放射性尘埃污染最严重的地区。队列成员的甲状腺剂量是在第一轮采访后估计的，在第二轮采访后重新评估。修正后的甲状腺剂量范围为0.35~42Gy.95%的剂量在1mGy至4.2Gy之间，算术平均值为0.65Gy.几何均数为0.19Gy.这些平均值是先前估计的70%，主要是因为使用了国家特有的甲状腺肿块。由于在第二轮访谈中使用了改进后的问卷，许多个人甲状腺剂量估计显示出很大的差异。讨论了当前一套甲状腺剂量估算的局限性。对于流行病学研究，最显著的改进是对不确定度的修订评估，因为在计算每个队列成员的1000个甲状腺剂量随机估计值时，考虑了参数值中的共同和非共同不确定度。此过程使执行更现实的风险分析成为可能。
In collaboration with the Ukrainian Research Center for Radiation Medicine, the U. S. National Cancer Institute initiated a cohort study of children and adolescents exposed to Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine to better understand the long-term health effects of exposure to radioactive iodines. All 13,204 cohort members were subjected to at least one direct thyroid measurement between 30 April and 30 June 1986 and resided at the time of the accident in the northern parts of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Chernihiv Oblasts, which were the most contaminated territories of Ukraine as a result of radioactive fallout from the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid doses for the cohort members, which had been estimated following the first round of interviews, were re-evaluated following the second round of interviews. The revised thyroid doses range from 0.35 mGy to 42 Gy, with 95% of the doses between 1 mGy and 4.2 Gy, an arithmetic mean of 0.65 Gy, and a geometric mean of 0.19 Gy. These means are 70% of the previous estimates, mainly because of the use of country-specific thyroid masses. Many of the individual thyroid dose estimates show substantial differences because of the use of an improved questionnaire for the second round of interviews. Limitations of the current set of thyroid dose estimates are discussed. For the epidemiologic study, the most notable improvement is a revised assessment of the uncertainties, as shared and unshared uncertainties in the parameter values were considered in the calculation of the 1,000 stochastic estimates of thyroid dose for each cohort member. This procedure makes it possible to perform a more realistic risk analysis.