Preparing for avian influenza: Lessons from the "Swine flu affair"
Preparing for avian influenza: Lessons from the "Swine flu affair"
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DOI：
10.1086/524989
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发表时间：
2008-02-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Fineberg, Harvey V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fineberg, Harvey V.
作为一种可能性低、后果高的事件，流感大流行的可能性对政策制定者提出了艰巨的挑战。借鉴 1976 年失败的猪流感免疫计划，本文概述了适用于禽流感准备工作的 7 个教训：(1) 谨防对根据微薄证据得出的模型过于自信，(2) 投资于平衡的研究和当代准备组合，(3) 明确联邦政府的业务责任，(4) 避免夸大目标和歪曲风险，(5) 加强地方实施能力，(6) 沟通(7) 为计划审查奠定基础。
As a low-likelihood, high-consequence event, the possibility of an influenza pandemic poses a difficult challenge to policymakers. Drawing from the ill-fated swine influenza immunization program of 1976, this article outlines 7 lessons that apply to preparations for avian influenza: (1) beware of overconfidence in models drawn from meager evidence, (2) invest in a balanced portfolio of research and contemporary preparedness, (3) clarify operational responsibilities in the federal government, (4) refrain from overstatement of objectives and misrepresentation of risk, (5) strengthen local capacity for implementation, (6) communicate strategically, and (7) lay the basis for program review.