The high-resolution estimation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentration, health effect and monetary costs in Beijing.
The high-resolution estimation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentration, health effect and monetary costs in Beijing.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.125031
复制
发表时间：
2020-02
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Yu Wu;Rui Li;Lulu Cui;Ya Meng;Hanyun Cheng;Hongbo Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yu Wu;Rui Li;Lulu Cui;Ya Meng;Hanyun Cheng;Hongbo Fu
在过去的几十年里，北京频繁出现高SO2负荷的严重空气污染事件，对人类健康造成了显着的损害。为了推进北京市SO2暴露的时空预测，利用北京市34个监测站2016年的逐日SO2浓度数据和7类潜在自变量(社会经济因素、交通运输、排放源、土地利用、气象数据、建筑形态和地理位置)建立了月土地利用回归(LUR)模型。12个最终LUR模型的平均校正R2为0.62，均方根误差为4.12 μg/m~3。LUR模型的LOOCVR2和RMSE值分别达到0.56g/m~3和5.43 μg/m~3，说明LUR模型取得了令人满意的效果。预测结果表明，北京市SO2平均水平为11.06 μg/m~3，最高达22.49 μg/m~3，最低降至3.86 μg/m~3。北京地区SO2暴露具有较强的空间异质性，南部地区明显高于北部地区。北京市每年因二氧化硫超标造成的死亡率和发病率分别为73例(95%可信区间：38-125)和27854例(95%可信区间：(13852-41659))，2016年经济损失分别为357.6万元(95%可信区间：(16.45-54.06))和441.47(95%可信区间：(318.31-562.04))元。本研究明确了北京市SO2污染的区域内和区域间的传输模型，为未来的空气质量和公共卫生管理策略提供了重要的支持。
Severe air pollution episodes with high SO2loading have been frequently observed during the last decades in Beijing and have caused a noticeable damage to human health. To advance the spatiotemporal prediction of SO2exposure in Beijing, we developed the monthly land use regression (LUR) models using daily SO2concentration data collected from 34 monitoring stations during 2016 and 7 categories of potential independent variables (socio-economic factors, traffic and transport, emission source, land use, meteorological data, building morphology and Geographic location) in Beijing. The average adjusted R2of 12 final LUR models was 0.62, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) was 4.12 μg/m3. The LOOCV R2and RMSE of LUR models reached 0.56 and 5.43 μg/m3, respectively, suggesting that the LUR models achieved the satisfactory performance. The prediction results suggested that the average SO2level in Beijing was 11.06 μg/m3with the highest one up to 22.49 μg/m3but the lowest one down to 3.86 μg/m3. The SO2exposure showed strong spatial heterogeneity, which was much higher in the southern area than that in the northern in Beijing. The mortality and morbidity due to the excessive SO2concentration were estimated to be 73 (95% CI:(38–125)) and 27854 (95% CI:(13852-41659)) cases per year in Beijing, leading to economic cost of 35.76 (95% CI:(16.45–54.06)) and 441.47 (95% CI:(318.31–562.04)) million RMB Yuan in 2016, respectively. This study clarified the intra- and inter-regional transport modeling of the SO2pollution in Beijing and supplied an important support for the future air-quality and public health management strategies.