Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5
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发表时间：
2020-05-08
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Rahmstorf, Stefan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Horton, Benjamin P.;Khan, Nicole S.;Rahmstorf, Stefan
海平面上升预测及其不确定性的知识对于做出知情的减缓和适应决定至关重要。为了让科学界对未来全球平均海平面（GMSL）上升做出预测，我们重复了五年前进行的一项调查。根据代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6，106位专家预测，相对于1986-2005年，到2100年，GM海平面可能上升0.30-0.65米（中心概率为66%），到2300年上升0.54-2.15米。根据RCP 8.5，同一批专家预测，到2100年，全球平均海平面可能上升0.63-1.32米，到2300年上升1.67-5.61米。专家对2100年的预测与最初调查的预测相似，但对2300年的预测延长了尾部，高于最初的调查。专家们给出了42%（原始调查）和45%（当前调查）的可能性，即在高排放情景下，GMSL上升将超过政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告估计的可能范围的上限（0.98米），这被认为具有17%的可能性。对开放式问题的答复表明，上限估计和不确定性的增加来自最近关于海洋冰崖不稳定性对南极冰盖融化水对GMSL上升的影响的有影响的研究。
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.