Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects
Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.007
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发表时间：
2013-09-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Wright, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lisenkova, Katerina;Merette, Marcel;Wright, Robert
本文提出了苏格兰动态重叠世代可计算一般均衡(OLG-CGE)模型。该模型用于考察人口老龄化对劳动力市场的影响。更具体地说，它用于评估劳动力减少和劳动力老龄化对关键宏观经济变量的影响。第二个效应被认为是通过特定年龄的生产率和劳动力参与来发挥作用的。在分析中，特别关注了人口老龄化对政府支出约束的影响。该模型的基本结构沿袭了奥尔巴赫和柯特利科夫的传统。然而，该模型直接考虑了特定年龄段的死亡率。这类似于在模型中“建立”一个由队列组成的人口预测结构，从而允许考虑更复杂和更现实的人口情景。(C)2013爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to "building in" a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.